In the Senate, 30 of 34 races were won by the incumbent party. Three of the four who lost were Democrats in strongly red states. The fourth was a race in Pennsylvania that will be decided by about 20,000 votes out of seven million cast.
The House was even more status quo. There were no surprises in Governor's races.
In the Senate, 30 of 34 races were won by the incumbent party. Three of the four who lost were Democrats in strongly red states. The fourth was a race in Pennsylvania that will be decided by about 20,000 votes out of seven million cast.
The House was even more status quo. There were no surprises in Governor's races.
This was absolutely not an election of rejecting incumbents. The only trends I can see are A) less split-ticket voting in a more polarized world and B) A general, across-the-board, shift of 3-4 percentage points toward the Republicans.
This means about one in every 12-15 people who voted Democrat in the last election changed his or her mind. And you can certainly chalk that up to an unusually weak candidate in Harris, the general weirdness of how Biden was replaced and why and maybe frustration with immigration issues and even transgender issues. You can get to 3-4 percentage points from that alone rather easily.
Americans love their incumbents. They always have.
Agreed. When I said incumbents, I meant the ones who are in charge and presided over high inflation and unchecked immigration. In our case those were specifically Biden and Harris, but not the broader Democratic Party, despite the narrative many on the right would like to push, including here at FP. In other countries it was PMs and their parties, given the differences in their systems.
In the Senate, 30 of 34 races were won by the incumbent party. Three of the four who lost were Democrats in strongly red states. The fourth was a race in Pennsylvania that will be decided by about 20,000 votes out of seven million cast.
The House was even more status quo. There were no surprises in Governor's races.
This was absolutely not an election of rejecting incumbents. The only trends I can see are A) less split-ticket voting in a more polarized world and B) A general, across-the-board, shift of 3-4 percentage points toward the Republicans.
This means about one in every 12-15 people who voted Democrat in the last election changed his or her mind. And you can certainly chalk that up to an unusually weak candidate in Harris, the general weirdness of how Biden was replaced and why and maybe frustration with immigration issues and even transgender issues. You can get to 3-4 percentage points from that alone rather easily.
Americans love their incumbents. They always have.
Agreed. When I said incumbents, I meant the ones who are in charge and presided over high inflation and unchecked immigration. In our case those were specifically Biden and Harris, but not the broader Democratic Party, despite the narrative many on the right would like to push, including here at FP. In other countries it was PMs and their parties, given the differences in their systems.