Lillia is right about our naval power. There is no way our decaying Navy can protect Taiwan, just off the coast of mainland China, any more than China could invade Catalina island. We simply can't project power that far against a peer or near-peer military power.
Lillia is right about our naval power. There is no way our decaying Navy can protect Taiwan, just off the coast of mainland China, any more than China could invade Catalina island. We simply can't project power that far against a peer or near-peer military power.
Yes, but to paraphrase from former Texas senator Lloyd Bentsen, Argentina is no China. Japan is certainly an X factor as you say, and I'm sure there's a lot of discussion in Japan about what their role might be that I'm not privy to.
Are you a Navy guy? My understanding is, the U.S. Navy is still vastly more powerful than China's, but they now have numerical superiority, which is "not nothing" according to a top admiral.
In a conventional war, the U.S. would mop the ocean floor with China's navy, and could probably decimate their land forces with some precision bombing raids and a massive barrage of Tomahawks.
If it escalated to nuclear, both countries would lose, but China would lose 10x the people we would, largely because their pop. is concentrated along the coasts whereas we are more sparsely distributed in a similar size land mass. (Now if they took out SF, Chicago, and DC, the evil side of me questions whether that would actually be so bad.)
I'm not a Navy guy, but I can swim if that helps. I think head to head in a swimming pool, the U.S. would still prevail. The problem is projecting power that far - think resupplying munitions, fuel, logistics, and rotating sailors. Remember that we don't have Subic Bay and Clark AFB any longer. Guam could be incapacitated and Japan may or may not be willing to be dragged into a war by being our only source of near supply, other than possibly Australia. And don't think the PRC won't have a significant 5th column in Taiwan. The scene on the ground there may not so much represent a defense as a chaotic civil war. Our fleet is declining and in disrepair as recent accidents show, though maybe CRT and equity training will tip the scales in our favor. China won't resort to nukes because they know time is on their side. Taiwan will have to defend itself the way Ukraine has if it wants to remain independent and free.
Nope very few Communist sympathizers in Taiwan. Up until the 1980s such people were shot dead. Maybe a couple thousand, including some visitors or illegal immigrants from the mainland. But not a significant population in an island of 23 million.
Lillia is right about our naval power. There is no way our decaying Navy can protect Taiwan, just off the coast of mainland China, any more than China could invade Catalina island. We simply can't project power that far against a peer or near-peer military power.
Have you ever heard of the Faukland Islands war? England's Navy was much smaller than ours was but they projected a lot of power across an ocean.
And there is also Japan, which is the X factor in this.
Yes, but to paraphrase from former Texas senator Lloyd Bentsen, Argentina is no China. Japan is certainly an X factor as you say, and I'm sure there's a lot of discussion in Japan about what their role might be that I'm not privy to.
Are you a Navy guy? My understanding is, the U.S. Navy is still vastly more powerful than China's, but they now have numerical superiority, which is "not nothing" according to a top admiral.
In a conventional war, the U.S. would mop the ocean floor with China's navy, and could probably decimate their land forces with some precision bombing raids and a massive barrage of Tomahawks.
If it escalated to nuclear, both countries would lose, but China would lose 10x the people we would, largely because their pop. is concentrated along the coasts whereas we are more sparsely distributed in a similar size land mass. (Now if they took out SF, Chicago, and DC, the evil side of me questions whether that would actually be so bad.)
I'm not a Navy guy, but I can swim if that helps. I think head to head in a swimming pool, the U.S. would still prevail. The problem is projecting power that far - think resupplying munitions, fuel, logistics, and rotating sailors. Remember that we don't have Subic Bay and Clark AFB any longer. Guam could be incapacitated and Japan may or may not be willing to be dragged into a war by being our only source of near supply, other than possibly Australia. And don't think the PRC won't have a significant 5th column in Taiwan. The scene on the ground there may not so much represent a defense as a chaotic civil war. Our fleet is declining and in disrepair as recent accidents show, though maybe CRT and equity training will tip the scales in our favor. China won't resort to nukes because they know time is on their side. Taiwan will have to defend itself the way Ukraine has if it wants to remain independent and free.
Nope very few Communist sympathizers in Taiwan. Up until the 1980s such people were shot dead. Maybe a couple thousand, including some visitors or illegal immigrants from the mainland. But not a significant population in an island of 23 million.
I was thinking along the lines of sleeper agents. Well-trained agents can create a lot of havoc without large numbers.
probably true. I wonder how extensive Taiwan's internal security and intelligence services are these days.