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Israel just took out Hamas and Hezbollah leaders deep inside enemy territory. Now Iran is threatening to retaliate. What comes next?
Iranians brandish Palestinian flags and portraits of late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh during his funeral procession in Tehran, on August 1, 2024. (Photo by AFP via Getty Images)

Two Assassinations and a Transformed War

Israel just took out Hamas and Hezbollah leaders deep inside enemy territory. Now Iran is threatening to retaliate. What comes next?

The past 48 hours have been the most dramatic and consequential of any since Hamas’s war against Israel began on October 7, 2023. More than that: they could reverse the momentum of this war which, until now, has been dictated by the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies. 

Let’s review the news:

On July 30, as the sun began to set in Beirut, Israel launched a precision air strike on Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah military commander. The strike took place in the Dahiyeh neighborhood, which is Hezbollah’s stronghold in the city. Shukr was wanted for decades by U.S. authorities for his role in the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine Corps barracks in Beirut that killed 241 U.S. military personnel. But the proximate reason for this hit was Hezbollah’s Saturday rocket attack in northern Israel, which killed 12 Druze children on a soccer field. Milad Bidi, an adviser to the Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, was also killed in Israel’s strike. 

Less than ten hours later, more dramatic news came out of Tehran: Israel eliminated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, making him the highest-ranking Hamas official to be killed since the war began. Most significant was how and where he was hit. Haniyeh was taken out in his Tehran apartment in the middle of the night. Yesterday, veteran Israeli journalist Ehud Yaari reported the missile that felled Haniyeh was not launched from the air. According to a New York Times report, Mossad smuggled a bomb into Haniyeh’s home months ago, only to detonate it remotely when the time was right.

These were by far the most high profile of Israel’s strikes on Iranian-backed terror groups and their leadership since October 7. But these are not the only ones. 

Earlier this month, on July 13, the IDF struck Mohammed Deif, Hamas’s top military commander. Deif met his end in an air strike in Mouasi—an area along the Gaza coast—where he attempted to blend in with Palestinians seeking refuge from the destructive war that he himself directed. Deif is credited for transforming Hamas from a tactical annoyance into a terror group that has pushed the Middle East to the brink of a regional war.

So what does all of this mean? 

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