There are three hot wars gripping the planet as Donald Trump prepares for his second term: the war in Ukraine, the battle in the Middle East, and an escalating fight in Washington for influence over his national security strategy.
This last war isn’t taking place across a border or over Iranian airspace, but mostly on X, where potential appointments—and bans—are being litigated by comedians and campaigns are being run by surrogates of hopefuls against other hopefuls.
Key protagonists in this early struggle include, on one side, Trump’s eldest son, Don Jr.; talk show host Tucker Carlson; billionaire industrialist Elon Musk; and a politically incongruous mix of viral podcasters and politicians. On the other side are several people from Trump’s first term, leading Republican lawmakers, and military veterans.
This conflict over the transition claimed its first victims on Saturday when Trump announced on social media that two stalwarts from his first administration—former secretary of state Mike Pompeo and ex-ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley—won’t be serving in his second term. “There were at least 25 people who called the president and said: ‘It’s got to be Mike Pompeo,’ ” a senior Republican official told The Free Press. “And none of it mattered.”
The defenestration of Pompeo and Haley, followed by some political muscle-flexing on X by Trump Jr. and Carlson, unnerved a number of Republican leaders and Trump administration veterans involved in the transition. Talking on background to The Free Press Sunday, they said they fear Trump’s inner circle is pushing for a national security team that will be reluctant to use U.S. military power to back American allies in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.
Such a strategic shift inward could almost immediately undermine Ukraine’s military operations against Russia and Israel’s war against Iran and its proxies, they warned. “I think there’s a new inner circle around Trump that is pushing him toward allowing Putin, Xi Jinping, and Iran to kind of do whatever they want to do, into a new isolationist approach, which we really haven’t seen before,” said a Republican national security strategist who held a senior post in the first Trump administration.
Trump campaigned against embroiling the U.S. in “forever wars” and has voiced skepticism about Ukraine’s ability to push Russian forces off their lands. Carlson and other public personalities who backed Trump, such as the venture capitalist and podcaster David Sacks, have argued that U.S. and NATO military deployments essentially forced Russian president Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine. Israeli media has reported that Trump wants Israel to wrap up its war in the Gaza Strip by the time of his inauguration.
There’s also a growing concern that Trump may rely mainly on political loyalists rather than seasoned national security staffers. It’s a temptation he largely resisted during his first term, though he moved in that direction toward its end. “Don Jr. and Grenell and Tucker have his ear in a way that’s very dangerous,” the first Republican leader told The Free Press on Sunday, referring to Ric Grenell, a close campaign adviser and former ambassador to Germany.
Others involved in the transition, though, cautioned against overreacting to the moves against Pompeo and Haley, and said Trump would build a balanced and experienced team. “I’d give it time,” said a third senior veteran from Trump’s first foreign policy team. “The president is pragmatic, and he’s very clear about what he wants to do this time.”
Many in the Republican establishment had seen Pompeo as the lead candidate to head the Pentagon, where he could continue to promote tough policies against China, Russia, and Iran. Haley, who initially ran against Trump in the Republican primaries, shares many of Pompeo’s views.
Trump’s decision followed lobbying from advisers, both formal and informal, who saw Pompeo and Haley as both politically disloyal and overly willing to use military force, top Republican leaders and members of Trump’s transition team told The Free Press. Among those who lobbied against Pompeo and Haley were Trump Jr., Carlson, Grenell, and former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, who publicly campaigned for Trump.
The younger Trump did little on Sunday to hide his lobbying against Pompeo. He wrote on X that he was “100!!! I’m on it” in response to a post by libertarian comedian Dave Smith, which read: “The ‘stop Pompeo’ movement is great but it’s not enough. Right now we need maximum pressure to keep all neocons and war hawks out of the Trump administration.”
Carlson on Sunday publicly endorsed national security strategist Elbridge Colby for a top position on the national security team. Colby, a veteran of the first Trump Pentagon, has written extensively about Washington’s need to turn away from Europe and the Middle East and train its military might almost solely on deterring China. “Elbridge Colby is one of the very few experienced national security officials who actually agrees with Donald Trump,” Carlson wrote on X. “He’s likely to play a big role in the new administration.”
Israel’s war against Iran and its proxies in the Middle East is expected to be the first international issue that Trump addresses. Members of Trump’s campaign and transition team told me that the U.S. will return to the “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran that Trump employed during his first term. This included ratcheting up financial sanctions to damage Iran’s ability to export oil and earn hard currency. It also involved using U.S. forces to push back against Iranian proxies in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Among Trump’s most aggressive international actions during his first term was the 2020 assassination in Iraq of Major General Qasem Soleimani, Tehran’s most important military figure.
The value of Iran’s currency, the rial, fell to an all-time low Wednesday in a sign of Iranians’ fear about U.S. foreign policy under Trump. Aides to Trump say he views the conflict with Iran personally. The Department of Justice has indicted a string of Iranian officials and operatives for allegedly plotting to assassinate the president-elect and his former aides in retaliation for the Soleimani hit. In July, the FBI arrested a Pakistani man in New York for allegedly plotting to kill Trump at a campaign rally.
But it’s still unclear how far the Trump administration will go in supporting Israel’s campaign against Tehran. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated his military could strike Iranian nuclear and oil facilities in the coming months. This risks dragging the U.S. into the type of all-out Middle East war that Trump campaigned against. It also could drive up global energy prices that would severely hurt the U.S. economy.
European officials, meanwhile, are watching to see if Trump makes good on his campaign promise to try and quickly end Russia’s war in Ukraine. They fear Russian president Vladimir Putin will try to use Trump’s brand of personal diplomacy to consolidate Russia’s territorial gains in eastern Ukraine and then apply military pressure on NATO members in central and northern Europe. Trump has repeatedly put U.S. support for NATO in doubt, citing the failure of European governments to contribute a fair share toward funding the alliance.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky last week vowed to work with Trump after his election victory, citing his calls for “peace through strength” as a stabilizing dictum. “When this principle becomes the policy of the 47th President, both America and the entire world will undoubtedly benefit,” Zelensky wrote on X.
Members of Trump’s campaign and transition team told The Free Press they wouldn’t rule out the president-elect brokering an agreement between Zelensky and Putin. They noted Trump’s efforts during his first term to negotiate a nuclear arms agreement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as an example of his willingness to take personal diplomatic risks on the world stage.
Finally, managing the U.S.’s relationship with China will be among Trump’s most important international issues during his second term. The Republican leader pledged to intensify his economic campaign against Beijing during a second term, including by dramatically raising tariffs from 60 to 100 percent on Chinese steel, medical supplies, and semiconductors.
It’s unclear if Trump’s plans to confront China will translate into military action. Beijing has grown increasingly aggressive over the past four years in asserting its territorial claims, particularly in the South China Sea. During his campaign, Trump was noncommittal on whether he’d employ force to protect U.S. allies in Asia, particularly Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan.
The secretary of defense position is particularly important to Trump, sources said, as he believes the Pentagon needs to be wholly restructured to face the threats posed by China, Russia, and Iran. In addition to Pompeo, Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas was initially seen as a leading candidate to run the Pentagon. But Cotton pulled himself out of consideration, citing family issues. With both men out of the race, Trump insiders say U.S. Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida is now a top contender. “You need a tough guy,” said a senior official from Trump’s first term authorized to talk about the transition. “You need somebody who can really tell the generals and the admirals what’s happening.”
Among the candidates for secretary of state are Grenell, and Tennessee senator Bill Hagerty, who served in Trump’s first term as ambassador to Japan. Others expected to be vetted for key national security roles include Florida senator Marco Rubio; John Ratcliffe, Trump’s director of national intelligence; Robert O’Brien, Trump’s last national security adviser; and Kash Patel, a senior Pentagon official during Trump’s first term.
Grenell was extremely active in the 2024 campaign and oversaw efforts to court Arab Americans and Muslim Americans. The 58-year-old’s career traces back to the George W. Bush administration, where he served as a top aide to then-UN ambassador John Bolton, among its most hawkish officials. Since Trump’s first term, Grenell’s entered into his inner circle both through his political work and close ties to members of Trump’s family. (On Sunday, meanwhile, it was reported that Rep. Elise Stefanik has been offered the role of UN ambassador.)
One potential wild card in Trump’s plans is his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The 43-year-old played a central role in Trump’s first White House, brokering a string of agreements between Israel and Arab states known as the Abraham Accords—one of Trump’s most important foreign policy successes.
Trump has signaled that he’d like to expand the Abraham Accords by forging a diplomatic pact between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Kushner would be a likely candidate to continue this work, but so far he’s told people that he plans to remain outside of Washington and focused on business. One person who talked to him told The Free Press it’s unclear whether Kushner could turn down a direct request from his father-in-law to return to public service.
“There are plenty of ways to be an unpaid outside adviser and take on a portfolio,” that person said. “So, I could see Jared doing something like that.”
Jay Solomon is an investigative reporter for The Free Press and author of the book The Iran Wars. Follow him on X at @FPJaySolomon, and read his piece “Why Are Iran’s Thugs Free to Walk the Streets of New York?”
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