The political analysis of a third party candidate is rather "tactical." Of course any independent run from President Biden's "left wing" peels away voters necessary for his own re-election. Duh.
But the "strategic" electoral issue remains - What happens to the parties when inexcess of 15-20% of their voters depart? A case could be made that in 1992 roughly 20% of the GOP electorate split-off for Ross Perot...essentially handing Bill Clinton a media "mandate" with only 43% of the vote. The subsequent national and state elections were then shaped by a GOP that was forever influenced by that schism - for decades to come...and sets the stage for the GOP's rapid subservience to DJT at all levels of national political structure
Strategically, what happens to the DNC when their own "Ross Perot" steps out on his/her own in 2024, 2028, 2029 and all those races in between? What will happen to the DNC in the myriad of other races when they get stuck as being a party with a questionable reputation?
The most grave danger faced by the country is that neither side has confidence in election results and that any means to victory is justified. All parties have to agree about how elections are to be conducted. All of the technology and extended voting periods opens up many more avenues to cheat. When both major party candidates are unpopular and the voters clearly would prefer different candidates it's only natural that certain egomaniacs will see an opportunity to enrich their brand or wallet and jump in. Much of the blame can be aimed at the RNC and DNC who no longer have any control over the quality or number candidates. The Dems have escalated the battle by having Trump indicted in multiple courts. Disgusting and most voters have already factored this in and are planning to vote for Trump anyway. If Trump is "convicted" and they try to throw his fat ass in jail- odds are that an armed insurrection will ensue. The Dems are playing with fire- real fire and have the balls to ring the alarm about Trump WEAPONIZING THE DOJ...that is RICH. What goes around comes around baby. Having Trump convicted on some nonsense charges is not going to stop Trump or his more rabid supporters. It could get very very ugly. Dead people ugly.
I'm not so sure about "The paradox of the 2024 race is that it threatens to be both a rematch of the last election and a messy, unpredictable scramble without precedent." - I think we've had a pretty rowdy presidential campaign history in this country: https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna49666619
Not sure if I'm enthusiastic about any of the possible 3rd party options so far, but we do desperately need to break the two party stranglehold on our system. Remember kids, two choices is only one more than you would get in a literal dictatorship.
I'm rarely excited about any candidate for any political office. Agree the two party stranglehold needs to go (And they can take daylight savings time with them).
My ideal is a type of rank voting. Whether or not it would work in practice is another thing altogether, but the idea seems better than what we currently have.
Ranked voting is an interesting idea. Whether it "works" in practice is in the eye of the beholder. If you are happier with the outcome than you would have been with only voting for one candidate, then you like ranked voting. Otherwise, you don't. This happened some years ago in Oakland CA, where the mayor was elected despite at least one other candidates having more 1st place votes. Not sure it would work, even if constitutional, for presidential elections, especially since we have the electoral college and not just a most votes wins system.
Well, you know, there was that covid thing that happened in 2020. I hear that some people died from that risk that is now fading away. Oh yeah, and there has been a bump from surging fentanyl deaths (sadly not fading away).
A more meaningful statistic might be gained by pulling out covid deaths, then comparing life expectancy in 2019 vs 2022 in those who reach older years. Say, life expectancy for those who reach some milestone age. Maybe 60? 65? Whatever age the statisticians typically look at to signify elders. My guess is that there would be little-to-no change in life expectancy.
So, if you survived the initial covid bump, and you just avoid drug death, I would expect that life goes on as in the before-times (at least as far as length of old age goes).
Agree. The older you get, the longer your life expectancy. An 82 year old has a much better chance of making it to 84, than an 18 year old.
I suspect it is more than just COVID, but what made a lot of older people susceptible to COVID was that they are already unhealthy, obesity being the biggest problem. The greatest generation has died off, leaving the silent generation as the last generation of relatively thin (not all of them) people. But now the silent types are on their way out, and the baby boomers are on deck and much fatter, so does not surprise me that the average age has decreased as silent types and baby boomers became the ones dying off.
There is so much distrust of the government (and rightly so) because of all the direction pushed by the leftist and democrats. It started with Obama and every true American saw it but the leftist democrats and media pushed it. The right propaganda and the evil looked good. No problem! Now that it has been exposed, people are finally see it and everyone is trying to fix it.
I’m not sure where to place this comment, so I will simply drop it in here. The HUGE and peaceful March for Israel is getting too little attention. One of those reasons is this (and let me say again, I am not a Trumper) chances are that a large number of the marchers were Christians, even (gasp!) some who identify as Evangelical Christians. And there was no real or imagined insurrection. Please read that again and count the numbers of marchers. Some evangelicals may have felt strongly enough about Trump to be in DC on Jan. 6. However, the number of Christian’s, evangelical or otherwise who are passionate about Israel far exceeds any Trump support for what I wish were obvious reasons. I wish someone would look thoughtfully into this idea, someone without a Trump fixation either from the left or the right. It might prove very interesting. Christians have been vilified over the last 30 years or so for getting too influential on the Right. “Family Friendly” has become an insult. And yet, again I say: Jewish Americans need to take a serious look at where support for Israel is coming from. And let me add just this: that support is not a devious power grab. It is not a move to put Trump back in the White House. It is, and always will be a moral issue that rises above the meanness of current politics.
No surprise to me that Evangelicals support Israel and Jews. And no, it is not because they want the apocalypse to come and all the Jews will die. Evangelicals are proudly pro-Western civilization and they see Jews as valued partners in protecting Western Civ.
The Christian’s know, understand and believe that the Jews are the chosen people of God. We read old and new testaments. All of my Christian friends and family all support the Jews. There is however one underlying sentiment that does not interfere with our support. That is the left, liberal Jew who votes blue down the line or gives millions to universities where vile bile is spewed or donations to hospitals where breast feeding is a bad word. It’s now “chest feeding”. Say it or get reprimanded. It’s coming to bite them in the butt. But we still stand with them and hope their eyes will be opened at the ballots, universities and local government.
This is no mystery to Israelis I have spoken to regarding foreign support. They are in agreement that devout Christians are their most ardent supporters.
P.S. I am wishing for a presidential candidate under the age of 70 who is fairly moderate but interested in a strong defense, and a strong support of Israel. A stance against Chinese infiltration would be nice and yes, fixing our Southern border.
At least permit a NOTA vote, that might at least shed some light on the situation
Maureen Dowd says “subhuman” is fine but “vermin” is fascist. https://dnyuz.com/2023/11/18/the-axe-is-sharp/
The political analysis of a third party candidate is rather "tactical." Of course any independent run from President Biden's "left wing" peels away voters necessary for his own re-election. Duh.
But the "strategic" electoral issue remains - What happens to the parties when inexcess of 15-20% of their voters depart? A case could be made that in 1992 roughly 20% of the GOP electorate split-off for Ross Perot...essentially handing Bill Clinton a media "mandate" with only 43% of the vote. The subsequent national and state elections were then shaped by a GOP that was forever influenced by that schism - for decades to come...and sets the stage for the GOP's rapid subservience to DJT at all levels of national political structure
Strategically, what happens to the DNC when their own "Ross Perot" steps out on his/her own in 2024, 2028, 2029 and all those races in between? What will happen to the DNC in the myriad of other races when they get stuck as being a party with a questionable reputation?
Fascinating.
The most grave danger faced by the country is that neither side has confidence in election results and that any means to victory is justified. All parties have to agree about how elections are to be conducted. All of the technology and extended voting periods opens up many more avenues to cheat. When both major party candidates are unpopular and the voters clearly would prefer different candidates it's only natural that certain egomaniacs will see an opportunity to enrich their brand or wallet and jump in. Much of the blame can be aimed at the RNC and DNC who no longer have any control over the quality or number candidates. The Dems have escalated the battle by having Trump indicted in multiple courts. Disgusting and most voters have already factored this in and are planning to vote for Trump anyway. If Trump is "convicted" and they try to throw his fat ass in jail- odds are that an armed insurrection will ensue. The Dems are playing with fire- real fire and have the balls to ring the alarm about Trump WEAPONIZING THE DOJ...that is RICH. What goes around comes around baby. Having Trump convicted on some nonsense charges is not going to stop Trump or his more rabid supporters. It could get very very ugly. Dead people ugly.
RFK Jr. would be a great person for Bari to have on Honestly.
I'm not so sure about "The paradox of the 2024 race is that it threatens to be both a rematch of the last election and a messy, unpredictable scramble without precedent." - I think we've had a pretty rowdy presidential campaign history in this country: https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna49666619
Not sure if I'm enthusiastic about any of the possible 3rd party options so far, but we do desperately need to break the two party stranglehold on our system. Remember kids, two choices is only one more than you would get in a literal dictatorship.
I'm rarely excited about any candidate for any political office. Agree the two party stranglehold needs to go (And they can take daylight savings time with them).
My ideal is a type of rank voting. Whether or not it would work in practice is another thing altogether, but the idea seems better than what we currently have.
Ranked voting is an interesting idea. Whether it "works" in practice is in the eye of the beholder. If you are happier with the outcome than you would have been with only voting for one candidate, then you like ranked voting. Otherwise, you don't. This happened some years ago in Oakland CA, where the mayor was elected despite at least one other candidates having more 1st place votes. Not sure it would work, even if constitutional, for presidential elections, especially since we have the electoral college and not just a most votes wins system.
Bari Weiss for third party candidate!
About the drop in life expectancy after 2019...
Well, you know, there was that covid thing that happened in 2020. I hear that some people died from that risk that is now fading away. Oh yeah, and there has been a bump from surging fentanyl deaths (sadly not fading away).
A more meaningful statistic might be gained by pulling out covid deaths, then comparing life expectancy in 2019 vs 2022 in those who reach older years. Say, life expectancy for those who reach some milestone age. Maybe 60? 65? Whatever age the statisticians typically look at to signify elders. My guess is that there would be little-to-no change in life expectancy.
So, if you survived the initial covid bump, and you just avoid drug death, I would expect that life goes on as in the before-times (at least as far as length of old age goes).
Agree. The older you get, the longer your life expectancy. An 82 year old has a much better chance of making it to 84, than an 18 year old.
I suspect it is more than just COVID, but what made a lot of older people susceptible to COVID was that they are already unhealthy, obesity being the biggest problem. The greatest generation has died off, leaving the silent generation as the last generation of relatively thin (not all of them) people. But now the silent types are on their way out, and the baby boomers are on deck and much fatter, so does not surprise me that the average age has decreased as silent types and baby boomers became the ones dying off.
There is so much distrust of the government (and rightly so) because of all the direction pushed by the leftist and democrats. It started with Obama and every true American saw it but the leftist democrats and media pushed it. The right propaganda and the evil looked good. No problem! Now that it has been exposed, people are finally see it and everyone is trying to fix it.
I’m not sure where to place this comment, so I will simply drop it in here. The HUGE and peaceful March for Israel is getting too little attention. One of those reasons is this (and let me say again, I am not a Trumper) chances are that a large number of the marchers were Christians, even (gasp!) some who identify as Evangelical Christians. And there was no real or imagined insurrection. Please read that again and count the numbers of marchers. Some evangelicals may have felt strongly enough about Trump to be in DC on Jan. 6. However, the number of Christian’s, evangelical or otherwise who are passionate about Israel far exceeds any Trump support for what I wish were obvious reasons. I wish someone would look thoughtfully into this idea, someone without a Trump fixation either from the left or the right. It might prove very interesting. Christians have been vilified over the last 30 years or so for getting too influential on the Right. “Family Friendly” has become an insult. And yet, again I say: Jewish Americans need to take a serious look at where support for Israel is coming from. And let me add just this: that support is not a devious power grab. It is not a move to put Trump back in the White House. It is, and always will be a moral issue that rises above the meanness of current politics.
Don't expect the MSM to step and say anything you just did. They see their job as guiding us up our own body parts. You are speaking truth.
No surprise to me that Evangelicals support Israel and Jews. And no, it is not because they want the apocalypse to come and all the Jews will die. Evangelicals are proudly pro-Western civilization and they see Jews as valued partners in protecting Western Civ.
The Christian’s know, understand and believe that the Jews are the chosen people of God. We read old and new testaments. All of my Christian friends and family all support the Jews. There is however one underlying sentiment that does not interfere with our support. That is the left, liberal Jew who votes blue down the line or gives millions to universities where vile bile is spewed or donations to hospitals where breast feeding is a bad word. It’s now “chest feeding”. Say it or get reprimanded. It’s coming to bite them in the butt. But we still stand with them and hope their eyes will be opened at the ballots, universities and local government.
This is no mystery to Israelis I have spoken to regarding foreign support. They are in agreement that devout Christians are their most ardent supporters.
P.S. I am wishing for a presidential candidate under the age of 70 who is fairly moderate but interested in a strong defense, and a strong support of Israel. A stance against Chinese infiltration would be nice and yes, fixing our Southern border.
You just described RFK.
There is no reasonable argument for a leftist anyone. Let alone a Jew.
"Let alone a Jew."
Huh?