Niall Ferguson and Nadine Zahawi’s columns share a common thread of action taken too late because of overlooked signals or wishful thinking. Another interpretation might be bad data and gaslighting. April, May, annd June’s employment numbers were revised down. If they had been accurately reported at the time, July’s numbers would not hav…
Niall Ferguson and Nadine Zahawi’s columns share a common thread of action taken too late because of overlooked signals or wishful thinking. Another interpretation might be bad data and gaslighting. April, May, annd June’s employment numbers were revised down. If they had been accurately reported at the time, July’s numbers would not have been a surprise and the Fed could have acted in a more timely manner. This gives rise to the question: Why do the BLS’s numbers suck so bad on a continuous and frequent basis. The razor maybe they are either stupid or lying (a personal favorite) or another chestnut “ never put down to malice what can be explained by mere stupidity”. The head favors stupidity (wait what?). The heart favors malice (hey it’s my heart) based on, well it’s an election year. In either case, why would the Fed continue to rely on their “Data” when in fact it is the sort of hot garbage that evokes tears of jealousy from dumpster fires? Powell and Co. aren’t dumb although I offer no guarantees. I also don’t get the impression ,necessarily, that they are lying or malicious. Perhaps they are simply using the best data available just like any modestly competent manager and they should be regarded as such. Obviously, they should have been skeptical but they acted as though the numbers were more reliable even as many of us were thinking “yeah right.” So whether the Federal Reserve Board are moderately exceptional managers or exceptionally moderate managers they’re just schmoes like us; unable to see the future and bound by mortality and perhaps that is the greatest insult of all to the elite.
They’re just schmoes like us. No one can predict the future. No one even knows what’s going on now. Greenspan calls it “sailing by the wake.” You look at where you’ve been and try to figure out from that where you’re heading.
Niall Ferguson and Nadine Zahawi’s columns share a common thread of action taken too late because of overlooked signals or wishful thinking. Another interpretation might be bad data and gaslighting. April, May, annd June’s employment numbers were revised down. If they had been accurately reported at the time, July’s numbers would not have been a surprise and the Fed could have acted in a more timely manner. This gives rise to the question: Why do the BLS’s numbers suck so bad on a continuous and frequent basis. The razor maybe they are either stupid or lying (a personal favorite) or another chestnut “ never put down to malice what can be explained by mere stupidity”. The head favors stupidity (wait what?). The heart favors malice (hey it’s my heart) based on, well it’s an election year. In either case, why would the Fed continue to rely on their “Data” when in fact it is the sort of hot garbage that evokes tears of jealousy from dumpster fires? Powell and Co. aren’t dumb although I offer no guarantees. I also don’t get the impression ,necessarily, that they are lying or malicious. Perhaps they are simply using the best data available just like any modestly competent manager and they should be regarded as such. Obviously, they should have been skeptical but they acted as though the numbers were more reliable even as many of us were thinking “yeah right.” So whether the Federal Reserve Board are moderately exceptional managers or exceptionally moderate managers they’re just schmoes like us; unable to see the future and bound by mortality and perhaps that is the greatest insult of all to the elite.
They’re just schmoes like us. No one can predict the future. No one even knows what’s going on now. Greenspan calls it “sailing by the wake.” You look at where you’ve been and try to figure out from that where you’re heading.