If your head has been spinning since President Donald Trump walked into the White House Rose Garden and declared “Liberation Day” last Wednesday, I don’t blame you. And not just because it was nauseating watching the stock market whipsaw down, and then down some more—and now, it appears, up again—but because it was unclear what exactly we were looking at.
As our guest today, Niall Ferguson, wrote last week in The Free Press:
Depending on your worldview, you probably think Trump’s tariff blitz is one of two things. Either a committed protectionist is trying to Make America Great Again by killing “globalism,” ending “forever wars,” and bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States. Let’s call this Project Minecraft. Alternatively, an unhinged demagogue is crashing both the world economy and the liberal international order, mainly to the advantage of authoritarian regimes. Call this Project Moscow.
But here is what is actually happening: The American empire that came into existence after the failed autarky and isolationism of the 1930s is being broken up after 80 years. Despite Trump’s imperial impulses—wanting to annex Greenland, calling for Canada to become the 51st state—he is engaged right now in a kind of wild decolonization project.
Over the past decade, there’s been an intense debate over what role the U.S. should play on the world stage—in war, in trade, in technology. And whatever the ultimate tariff rates wind up being, it seems Trump has made a clear decision that the era of free trade has come to a close—whether or not most Americans understand the consequences.
So what are the consequences when the U.S. acts unilaterally? What is the outcome when the U.S. weaponizes its own economic power? What happens when the world order, as we know it, begins to crumble? Will these moves embolden our adversaries around the world? Will this make us poorer, or better off? Is the American empire collapsing? Was this inevitable, or self-inflicted?
And finally, who wins in the end?
Click below to listen to our conversation, or scroll down for an edited transcript.
