Niall Ferguson: Israel’s Iran Strike—and America’s Strategic Weakness

“Although the Middle East remains beset with perennial challenges, the region is quieter than it has been for decades.” That was the confident declaration made by Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, in a 7,000-word essay published in Foreign Affairs one year ago.

Unfortunately for Sullivan, the article was sent to the printer on October 2, 2023. Five days later, Hamas demolished Sullivan’s assertion that “we have de-escalated crises in Gaza” when the terrorist group massacred some 1,200 Israelis and kidnapped more than 200. 

Since then, the region has been in a state of upheaval not seen in half a century—since the last surprise attack on Israel almost exactly 50 years previously, on Yom Kippur 1973. And at every single major hinge point of Israel’s war with Iran’s proxies, the U.S. has been as wrong as Sullivan was in that essay.

The White House said don’t go into Gaza. Israel did, and in a sustained campaign killed a high proportion of Hamas fighters. Team Biden-Harris said don’t go into Rafah. Israel ignored those warnings, too, and in February liberated two hostages there. Ten days ago, a routine Israeli patrol in Rafah spotted the mastermind of the massacre, Yahya Sinwar, who was killed soon after. Washington said don’t send troops into Lebanon. Israel sent them anyway and in a matter of weeks has inflicted severe damage on Hezbollah’s positions there. 

Biden and Harris said “Ceasefire now!” but Israel had no interest in a ceasefire that gave Hamas breathing space to regroup. Finally, the U.S. warned against Israel directly attacking Iran. An as yet unidentified U.S. government official even appears to have leaked Israel’s plans to Tehran—a scandal that ought to be front-page news. You know what happened next.