SIGINT has always been a strength of Iran's intelligence service. They mostly don't use it. Once in a while, a method gets discovered, like communicating by editing of email drafts on the same account. Clever hacks. Other places islamists openly ride aircraft as passengers to spot aircraft and ground movements, relaying them live. This replaces radar. Etc.
I could think of many more ways to get messages through that are clandestine. But their main strength is OPSEC and need to know.
It takes an event like this to wake people up. All generals tend to fight the last war.
It is high time to recognize the thugs who use religion as a cover; January 6th or Jihad, for what they are. We need to recognize the difference between idealism and ideology.
Am I the only person here who sees that this attack, in it's crazy combination of subhuman barbarism, and its intricate planning, had to be an attack designed to provoke a response? It served no military purpose, and Gaza cannot win this war. They are so much weaker than Israel. This had to be Hamas acting on behalf of Iran in order to provoke a massively Israeli response... to, at best, A) put a damper on Saudi-Israeli regional cooperation, or worse B) to justify to the Muslim street a full-scale multi-front war on Israel. No other possibility is consistent with the careful planning and utter strategic stupidity from the point of view of Gaza. Hamas' government lives in Dotha, so they're safe, but they're not going to be able to govern anymore--this is baiting Israel into Gaza, sacrificing the people of Gaza like blind fools, and then launching a war. What about option C) this was Russia and China pushing Iran to push its proxies to open another front so that China can take Taiwan and Russia can have pressure taken off of it as it invades the Ukraine? I think this is the most urgent question around the whole paradoxical attack: carefully planned, and utterly senseless.
It's B) they're considering going into Gaza, full scale, problem is most of the army are security in West Bank, not trained for combat (according to Seymour Hershs source) they're getting crash training. They were heavily reliant on technology and not combat training. They gave the impression they were invisible.
I follow a few journalists who publish from Syria and Iraq and elsewhere. People in Syria preparing for war, Iraqis are doing the same.
If the military go into Gaza, this will mean the rest of Israel is wide open for slaughter, which is exactly what happened in south Israel where there was no protection for 12 hours and they went from house to house killing everyone.
Unless they seriously enter into ceasefire negotiations, this is going to be devastating for absolutely everyone; Israelis AND Palestinians. And those who come from other countries.
I wish more people and publications would promote the narrative of ceasefire negotiations and peace, because all I see is an escalation of full blown war. Far more innocent people dying on both sides.
Israel is surrounded by countries which do not support it. The US can't save them, Europe can't save them. This is a very big problem for everyone who lives in the region.
I'm not opposed to negotiations, ceasefire, and peace--as long as we're clear that 1) we will not be returning to the status quo, the atrocity changed that, and 2) the Hamas leadership has the same future as Paulie, the chauffer, from _The Godfather_
David, how about Israel allowing this enables a step up in US arm shipments to Israel. And some of those arms get diverted to Ukraine? This diversion already happening and Israel US fed arms depot was already low (especially on artillery shells) as a result. If ‘24 election goes ‘against’ direct US arms to Ukraine, arms to Israel and then to Ukraine (when no one’s looking) could be the insurance policy.
After 1,200 dead civilians, Israel will pay absolutely no attention to international calls for a ceasefire. The Siege of Mosul took about 6 months. Mosul has about 1.8 million people. Gaza has 2.3 million. If Israel is relentless in attacking Gaza, using its firepower against any structure that Hamas shoots from without regard to human shields, it should take no more than 9 months to reduce Hamas to minimal military power. Israel can use tear gas or vomit gas in tunnels. It's against the laws of war, but Hamas is holding hostages, which is also a violation. Israeli casualties might be 900 to 1,200 dead. It might be worth it to eliminate Hamas.
Over the last few days I heard several discussions suggesting that given the overwhelming might and sophistication of Israel’s military and intelligence apparatus the success of this attack can only be explained by some collusion on the part of the Israeli deep state and some outside actors . These conspiracy theories are all premised on the belief in a superior Israel and an inferior and unsophisticated enemy. This article shows that such a premise is simply wrong. This was simply a tactical and possibly strategic failure on the part of Israel.
I disagree. This article IMO doesn’t erase the idea that this could be a false flag (something Israel allowed to happen), even as abhorrent as that may feel for Israel to ‘use’ kibbutz families near Gaza, as pawns (because it is completely vile if what I state next has any shred of truth).
First, I fully support State of Israel and have fondness for Jews. And I think what Hamas has done is pure evil. But that doesn’t mean I don’t critically think.
There are clear ‘winners’ of Israel ‘allowing’ this sad, tragic event to occur. Start w/ the obvious: Hamas/Iran ‘wins’ by (potentially) throwing wrench in Saudi Arabia formally recognizing Israel. Israel wants that recognition but it’s less important than other benefits it can generate domestically and w/ the West. Flip side of that coin is Saudi’s could also possibly win by sympathy generated for Israel, and this gives them ‘cover’ to recognize Israel.
Israel ‘wins’ first by uniting a citizenry (against that ‘ol foe Hamas) that is currently quite divided over Judicial Reforms.
Now the part that is less obvious. The USA Military Arms Industry (and Western + Israeli neocons) ‘win’ by creating a fresh need for funnel of arms to Israel (to fight Hamas and perhaps Hezbollah, or Iran). That threat (or need for revenge) helps the Arms Industry on a macro level. But on a micro level, there is an Ukraine connection. There exists a WRSA-1 (War Reserve Stockpile Ammunition-Israel) which is a USA stockpile of armaments to Israel to help it defend itself. The WRSA-I has very low stocks right now (especially artillery shells) because the arms from that depot have been flowing to Ukraine. This has been reported on by WS Journal opinion piece in Jan ‘23:
Well, what better way to continue arming Ukraine than the USA ‘having’ to re-arm Israel for its fights w/ Hamas and its protector, Iran. If US Congress should cut off direct USA arms aid to Ukraine, fine, there is a backdoor way to continue laundering arms to Ukraine, via Israel. Cause Israel needs those arms for all the fighting you are about to see splashed across the media for the foreseeable future w/ Hamas, and maybe others. But those arms could also be re-directed to Ukraine, and who will be the wiser?
I think the risk to Bibi's reputation for having failed to stop the attack is too great. Too much of a gamble. Nobody would allow the mass rape of their daughters, cousins, and the slaughter of babies. The Israelis have much denser social networks than we do, and they could not have screwed-over their countrymen this way - the elites aren't insulated from the people as much as you see in Gaza with their ultra-insulated leaders who absolutely do not care that their people are slaughtered.
I think you are naive to believe the words you wrote, without being open to other possibilities. Israel’s very existence is predicated on the constant inflow of USA arms and protection. They live in a very tough neighborhood, 3 major wars to wipe them from the map ‘48, ‘67 & ‘73. If USA said ‘I need a backdoor flow of arms to Russia, and that is ‘you’ Israel, then Israel will comply w/ allowing conditions to develop where those arms will not only continue to flow, but increase. If it means some terrible deaths, then that might what needs to occur. I find the very idea to be gross & abhorrent. And I’m suggesting Bibi & US are counting on you thinking it’s so wild, that it can’t possibly be true. In my mind, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that US wants to continue to punish Russia vis Ukraine, and unknown what ‘24 election result will be. This could be an insurance policy to allow continue flow of arms should Congress or a new POTUS cut off direct arms shipments from USA to Ukraine. Arms to Ukraine if you haven’t noticed is getting pretty controversial in our government. Bibi has plenty of time to get populous back on his side for his ‘failure to detect’ w/ crushing military response, that’s about to kick off
I'm almost certainly naive on a few things, but I don't think this is happening because I feel like it doesn't quite fit Ockham's Razor (which is not disproof). I support more arms going to Russia, but I would not support any crazy round-about way of doing it on the level of the "Icebreaker" theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_offensive_plans_controversy
The fact that there are winners and losers is far from being evidence of a false flag operation. Even assuming that arms dealers prefer a world with more rather than less armed conflict doesn’t provide evidence of a false flag operation.
The only reason to conclude the possibility of a false flag conspiracy operation is based on the assumption of Israeli infallibility and Hamas inferiority . Moreover, one also has to assume that Israeli leadership would condone the mass murder of Jewish civilians in order to create a pretext for invading Gaza and going to war with Hamas.
First, I find support for abhorrent on its face. Second, as a practical matter Hamas’ constant missile attacks against Israel would already provide sufficient grounds to pacify Gaza. Third, as the success of this terrorist attack shows, the assumption that Israeli military and intelligence are superior to their enemies is debatable. Despite numerous successes, this is not the first time the Israeli military and intelligence apparatus has faltered. The difference this time is that Hamas is showing with the aide of Iran that it can be a formidable terrorist threat to the region. This will mean considerable rethinking of intelligence and military strategy not just by Israel, but Saudi Arabia as well. I would say this attack also changes the calculation for the USA in crafting our Middle East policy since Iran and Hamas have shown that they can and will use the most brutal form of terrorism to disrupt any semblance of stability in the region.
I don’t disagree. Just pointing out there are larger forces afoot that benefit from the emotional tugs that we’re seeing across media, as result of this tragedy. There are voices now across the political spectrum saying Hamas must be destroyed. Maybe so. As for false flag, if this did occur it’s a modification of traditional false flag. Traditional false flag is government designs and executed an attack on itself or ally. Some may say Gulf of Tonkin fits this bill, or better the Gleiwitz Incident in 1939 Poland/Germany (SS dressed up as Poles)
But in this case, could the ‘false flag’ have been Israel knowingly turning a blind eye to the prep and execution of terrorist attack, knowing those foes already hate their guts? My moral compass (and vast majority of others) would hope no, that can’t be the case. Perhaps that is what Israel/USA government are counting on…
Why would Israel turn blind eye to such an attack? The leaders of Hamas have expressed publicly that they took extraordinary efforts to keep this operation secret for two years during its planning. As the author indicates Israel does not have human assets in Gaza and has relied on electronic surveillance methods. Most intelligence professionals see human assets as the preferred method for collecting intelligence. So a more reasonable explanation is that Israeli intelligence agencies failed because they relied on electronic rather than human assets; and that Hamas was more skilled at keeping secrets than Israel believed they could be.
I dunno, but there are a number of former Israeli military & intelligence who are raising these questions. They were on the inside of IDF defense, not you or I, and they are skeptical of the failure to detect (and timely react). There is also report that Egypt tipped off Israel to the attack. If true, why was that dismissed/ignored? This attack also almost 50 year anniversary to ‘73 Yom Kippur War. I read MSM stating this failure is just attributed to Israeli hubris, they did not think it was possible that a ragtag group could pull off something so sophisticated. That is one explanation. But is it the true one?
First off to suggest that there is something suspicious about this attack because Hamas is a rag tag bunch is an interesting perspective. Hamas couldn’t pull this off because they are just a bunch of ignorant Arab bandits--seems to be embracing the same error that Israeli military and intelligence made. Besides while never having carried out an attack with this level of sophistication and ferocity, over the years, Hamas has shown they are a capable terrorist organization. But consider their capability maybe magnified exponentially by their current partnership with Iran--the financial and logistical supporter of much of the world’s current terrorism.
Finally, you and these others--even if they are former IDF--still have not provided a reason why Israeli leadership would sanction a pogrom against the Jewish people. It seems far fetched that Israel planned this false flag operation but were so clumsy as to lose control and allow the slaughter of Israeli citizens.
You might also assume Israel and western neocons have a strategy of ‘allowing’ bloodthirsty Hamas to perpetrate these atrocities. That opens up unlimited arms flows from USA to Israel to ‘fight back’ and guess what, those arms can be re-directed to Ukraine. It’s already been happening, and Israel stockpiles are low (especially artillery shells). Bibi can also offer a divided Israel (over judicial reforms) to focus attention instead on an old, common foe.
I can’t help but think that the pro Palestinian support in the US has a part in this tragedy. HAMAS feels somewhat safe in this tragedy because they know a strong voice will occur in the international community to stop Israel from destroying them.
Technology is a TOOL to help with defense but, more and more, it's being viewed as the be-all and end-all. It will never be a replacement for boots on the ground and simple observation. Technology can be taken out much more easily than people realize and A.I. is still in its infancy despite what those selling the tech would like us to believe.
When I was younger and we were buying our first house, I had thought about buying a burglar alarm. My dad told me a dog was a much better and, more importantly, faster deterrent. Relying on sensors on a fence is a great BACKUP but should never be the primary means of security.
“The zero hour was kept completely secret. . . . Hamas leaders knew it. The number of people who knew about the attack and its timing could be counted on one hand.”
Then how exactly do you organise a thousand men and a bulldozer at the last minute. Even if a thousand men were arranged, no of them ask questions about what they're going to do, where they are going? They set up protests prior to normalise movement on the border. But only a handful of men knew?
'Meanwhile, rocket fire from the sky pushed Israeli soldiers at their bases into protective spaces, meaning they were unable to stand outside and watch for invaders. And when Hamas used drones to drop bombs on Israel’s communications towers, the IDF lost its chain of command.'
The multiple physical and remote surveillance all gone? No one has mobile phones to communicate?
'an Egyptian intelligence official had warned Netanyahu of a looming Hamas attack, but those warnings were ignored'
Did they really? Has this been verified? According to the linked article “No message in advance has arrived from Egypt and the Prime Minister has neither spoken, nor met, with the head of Egyptian intelligence since the formation of the government, neither directly nor indirectly.”
This has so many holes. I'm waiting to see what Seymour Hersh's next release says.
It's behind a paywall, and I honestly think the guy has expressed a little too much willingness to go to the poorly evidenced conspiracy, because for him, it completes the simplistic pattern--to be honest. I'm sorry I couldn't read the article to confirm or disconfirm that hypothesis.
Short version relating to the modern world, as in the past half-Millenia or so:
1. The Ottoman Empire, with Turkey as its core state, had absolute sovereignty over all the land currently known as Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Palestine and Israel (and others too) for centuries.
2. The Ottoman Empire collapsed at the end of WWI (1918)
3. Then the land currently known as Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Palestine and Israel was administered by the UK and France under the now defunct League of Nations. The 1917 Balfour declaration from the UK expressed support for a Jewish homeland in the area of the former Ottoman Empire known as Palestine.
4. This area was at that time mostly Arab Muslims but with a Jewish minority. Obviously, both had been there since before the Ottoman Empire even existed. Zionism is the idea of a Jewish homeland and Jews from around the world started coming to the area to establish a Jewish state. Arabs wanted to have their own independent state. There was violence and terrorism and it was messy and the UK wanted out since they were caught in the middle and neither side wanted them there.
5. After WW2 ended (1945), the brand new UN mandated two new nations in this area, Israel and Palestine to take effect in 1948 (British official exit).
6. Palestine never got started since the first thing that happened was the first Arab-Israeli war where the Arab League (Palestine, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, etc) invaded Israel to wipe them out. They lost. There have been other Arab Israeli wars since, same result.
I’m loving the solid, in-depth reporting on The FP. It seems so true that a house divided against itself cannot stand. Perhaps America should take notice.
I gotta say, is it Bibi's fault for reforming the judiciary for making it more deferential to the legislature (arguably a necessary idea to be true to democratic principles) or is it the fault of the opposition who made it very apparent that they'd rather defend the judiciary than defend the country. I think the opposition is more to blame than Bibi, but both sides share some of the blame here.
Nonsense! Hamas has sacrificed the future of their children. The aid, million of dollars, has not gone to quality of life for the many but to the corrupt few and to terrorist activities. The country is in shambles and Israel is not the major reason why it is such a mess.
Nonsense! Sounds really macho, but headquarters in hospital basements demonstrate a willingness to sacrifice the weak and spare yourselves. How much of a sacrifice and difficulty is it to kill babies? !
May people see Hamas for the monsters that they are and the destruction that they bring to others and their country.
The response from Ivy League schools has been shocking. I , naively, thought that they would see Hamas for who they are - a terror organization that’s goal is destruction of the Jews . The left has abandoned the Jews . I hope this is not the end of Israel . I pray they survive . I cannot imagine waking up to see men parachuting into my back yard . I cannot imagine living in fear every day. I hope they take the Gaza Strip back . Send all the refugees to the Arab world . No more
A few years back, I waited to see if a family member was safe after the terrorist attack on a rock concert in Paris. He was fine, but 130 young people died that night. There was a photo of the shoes and clothing left behind by the dead and wounded after they had been moved away. Their clothing was a testimony to an anticipated night of fun and celebration and how impossibly young they were.
What excuse is given for their deaths? How did it improve the lives of Palestine? What end was achieved by the means of killing people at soccer fields, concerts, magazines, or school? Je suits Charlie & Israel.
Note that the head bigwigs of Hamas, from the safety of their luxury homes in Qatar, are calling for "martyr" attacks on Jews this coming Friday: "we are asking for your blood and souls."
1 election put them in power, no elections since. They run a terror-police state on the level of Iran within their poor fiefdom, these people are being sacrificed. The people of Gaza are either terrorized into submission by their government, or they are blind fools weaned on tribal resentments that were nurtured by Hamas leadership in order to play them like pawns on a chessboard. What a disaster.
How many are being sacrificed against their will? Both the leaders of Hamas AND the common people of Gaza believe that getting killed as a result of jihad is quick trip to heaven. That's why they are so willing to put their children in harm's way.
you may be right, but I see the people of Gaza as being uneducated, unfree, manipulated, monitored, and have had their resentments carefully kindled for years and all the blame has been pushed on Israel - while the Hamas leaders of Gaza 1) don't even live there, and 2) cover-up the fact that they are the ones keeping Gaza poor by limiting opportunity and infrastructure>specifically to kindle resentment.
So go walk around in the roughest neighborhoods of the USA. South Side of Chicago, parts of New York, Atlanta, and apply your understanding of things there. Fix that first. Most people talk about Israel and Hamas as if they understood it. But right at home, with far simpler matters, they aren't willing to do that. Why? Because at home it's real. People here know better.
You're not wrong. But the fact that Gazans have been carefully groomed by their leaders to be the perfect suicidal pawns doesn't change the fact that they are extremely dangerous--and not just to Jews.
Jordan ended up kicking out their Palestinian refugees in the 70s when they attempt to assassinate the king of Jordan. Lebanon has a constant problem with civil strife as a result of allowing Palestinians to settle in their south. Kuwait kicked out Palestinian migrant workers because they supported Iraq during the 1990 invasion. Egypt doesn't want Palestinians in their country because they support the violent Muslim Brotherhood.
Technology is great but what one man can do another can undo. The biggest issue is the cynicism of the west. Too many episodes of House of Cards and wag the dog movies makes us think all leaders and parties are simply mouthing rhetoric for domestic purposes. The charter for Hamas, a group Gaza's voted for, was the destruction of Israel. As Miss. Weiss has recently reminded us, WHEN SOMEONE TELLS YOU WHO YOU ARE BELIEVE THEM.
Their tactical victory might very well turn out to be a massive strategic mistake for Hamas—if a people are weak, divided, and complacent, and you attack without actually winning the war right then and there... All you've done is unified them and renewed their resolve like nothing else possibly could. Short-sighted at best, suicidal at worst.
So what is the long-term strategy? For Iran, it is a proxy war to bring their people together. Iran's leadership is loosing control. They need to focus their people's attention outward, away from themselves. Iran's ayatollahs WANT slaughter of civilians in Gaza. That becomes their PR warfare that they desperately need inside Iran. Within islam, to be a martyr is blessed. For that, you go to heaven no matter your sins.
The object here is not to win, although -- if they do slaughter Israel and drive the survivors into the sea to be picked up like Dunkirk --- they will celebrate it. But what they really want is to keep a proxy war simmering that makes their people turn away from them as this helps them keep their grip on power.
To deal with this, one must punish the puppet masters so they don't want to do it again.
SIGINT has always been a strength of Iran's intelligence service. They mostly don't use it. Once in a while, a method gets discovered, like communicating by editing of email drafts on the same account. Clever hacks. Other places islamists openly ride aircraft as passengers to spot aircraft and ground movements, relaying them live. This replaces radar. Etc.
I could think of many more ways to get messages through that are clandestine. But their main strength is OPSEC and need to know.
It takes an event like this to wake people up. All generals tend to fight the last war.
It is high time to recognize the thugs who use religion as a cover; January 6th or Jihad, for what they are. We need to recognize the difference between idealism and ideology.
خدافظ
Am I the only person here who sees that this attack, in it's crazy combination of subhuman barbarism, and its intricate planning, had to be an attack designed to provoke a response? It served no military purpose, and Gaza cannot win this war. They are so much weaker than Israel. This had to be Hamas acting on behalf of Iran in order to provoke a massively Israeli response... to, at best, A) put a damper on Saudi-Israeli regional cooperation, or worse B) to justify to the Muslim street a full-scale multi-front war on Israel. No other possibility is consistent with the careful planning and utter strategic stupidity from the point of view of Gaza. Hamas' government lives in Dotha, so they're safe, but they're not going to be able to govern anymore--this is baiting Israel into Gaza, sacrificing the people of Gaza like blind fools, and then launching a war. What about option C) this was Russia and China pushing Iran to push its proxies to open another front so that China can take Taiwan and Russia can have pressure taken off of it as it invades the Ukraine? I think this is the most urgent question around the whole paradoxical attack: carefully planned, and utterly senseless.
It's B) they're considering going into Gaza, full scale, problem is most of the army are security in West Bank, not trained for combat (according to Seymour Hershs source) they're getting crash training. They were heavily reliant on technology and not combat training. They gave the impression they were invisible.
I follow a few journalists who publish from Syria and Iraq and elsewhere. People in Syria preparing for war, Iraqis are doing the same.
If the military go into Gaza, this will mean the rest of Israel is wide open for slaughter, which is exactly what happened in south Israel where there was no protection for 12 hours and they went from house to house killing everyone.
Unless they seriously enter into ceasefire negotiations, this is going to be devastating for absolutely everyone; Israelis AND Palestinians. And those who come from other countries.
i believe you may be right about these things, let's keep praying... or acting like we are praying, for the atheists in the room ;-)
I wish more people and publications would promote the narrative of ceasefire negotiations and peace, because all I see is an escalation of full blown war. Far more innocent people dying on both sides.
Israel is surrounded by countries which do not support it. The US can't save them, Europe can't save them. This is a very big problem for everyone who lives in the region.
I'm not opposed to negotiations, ceasefire, and peace--as long as we're clear that 1) we will not be returning to the status quo, the atrocity changed that, and 2) the Hamas leadership has the same future as Paulie, the chauffer, from _The Godfather_
I don't think anyone could disagree with that
Very insightful. Thanks.
David, how about Israel allowing this enables a step up in US arm shipments to Israel. And some of those arms get diverted to Ukraine? This diversion already happening and Israel US fed arms depot was already low (especially on artillery shells) as a result. If ‘24 election goes ‘against’ direct US arms to Ukraine, arms to Israel and then to Ukraine (when no one’s looking) could be the insurance policy.
I can't say it isn't possible, but that is a few too many moving parts for me to keep track of.
After 1,200 dead civilians, Israel will pay absolutely no attention to international calls for a ceasefire. The Siege of Mosul took about 6 months. Mosul has about 1.8 million people. Gaza has 2.3 million. If Israel is relentless in attacking Gaza, using its firepower against any structure that Hamas shoots from without regard to human shields, it should take no more than 9 months to reduce Hamas to minimal military power. Israel can use tear gas or vomit gas in tunnels. It's against the laws of war, but Hamas is holding hostages, which is also a violation. Israeli casualties might be 900 to 1,200 dead. It might be worth it to eliminate Hamas.
Over the last few days I heard several discussions suggesting that given the overwhelming might and sophistication of Israel’s military and intelligence apparatus the success of this attack can only be explained by some collusion on the part of the Israeli deep state and some outside actors . These conspiracy theories are all premised on the belief in a superior Israel and an inferior and unsophisticated enemy. This article shows that such a premise is simply wrong. This was simply a tactical and possibly strategic failure on the part of Israel.
I disagree. This article IMO doesn’t erase the idea that this could be a false flag (something Israel allowed to happen), even as abhorrent as that may feel for Israel to ‘use’ kibbutz families near Gaza, as pawns (because it is completely vile if what I state next has any shred of truth).
First, I fully support State of Israel and have fondness for Jews. And I think what Hamas has done is pure evil. But that doesn’t mean I don’t critically think.
There are clear ‘winners’ of Israel ‘allowing’ this sad, tragic event to occur. Start w/ the obvious: Hamas/Iran ‘wins’ by (potentially) throwing wrench in Saudi Arabia formally recognizing Israel. Israel wants that recognition but it’s less important than other benefits it can generate domestically and w/ the West. Flip side of that coin is Saudi’s could also possibly win by sympathy generated for Israel, and this gives them ‘cover’ to recognize Israel.
Israel ‘wins’ first by uniting a citizenry (against that ‘ol foe Hamas) that is currently quite divided over Judicial Reforms.
Now the part that is less obvious. The USA Military Arms Industry (and Western + Israeli neocons) ‘win’ by creating a fresh need for funnel of arms to Israel (to fight Hamas and perhaps Hezbollah, or Iran). That threat (or need for revenge) helps the Arms Industry on a macro level. But on a micro level, there is an Ukraine connection. There exists a WRSA-1 (War Reserve Stockpile Ammunition-Israel) which is a USA stockpile of armaments to Israel to help it defend itself. The WRSA-I has very low stocks right now (especially artillery shells) because the arms from that depot have been flowing to Ukraine. This has been reported on by WS Journal opinion piece in Jan ‘23:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-arsenal-of-democracys-stockpile-in-israel-weapons-arms-supply-chain-operations-conflict-war-zone-11674681905
Well, what better way to continue arming Ukraine than the USA ‘having’ to re-arm Israel for its fights w/ Hamas and its protector, Iran. If US Congress should cut off direct USA arms aid to Ukraine, fine, there is a backdoor way to continue laundering arms to Ukraine, via Israel. Cause Israel needs those arms for all the fighting you are about to see splashed across the media for the foreseeable future w/ Hamas, and maybe others. But those arms could also be re-directed to Ukraine, and who will be the wiser?
I think the risk to Bibi's reputation for having failed to stop the attack is too great. Too much of a gamble. Nobody would allow the mass rape of their daughters, cousins, and the slaughter of babies. The Israelis have much denser social networks than we do, and they could not have screwed-over their countrymen this way - the elites aren't insulated from the people as much as you see in Gaza with their ultra-insulated leaders who absolutely do not care that their people are slaughtered.
I think you are naive to believe the words you wrote, without being open to other possibilities. Israel’s very existence is predicated on the constant inflow of USA arms and protection. They live in a very tough neighborhood, 3 major wars to wipe them from the map ‘48, ‘67 & ‘73. If USA said ‘I need a backdoor flow of arms to Russia, and that is ‘you’ Israel, then Israel will comply w/ allowing conditions to develop where those arms will not only continue to flow, but increase. If it means some terrible deaths, then that might what needs to occur. I find the very idea to be gross & abhorrent. And I’m suggesting Bibi & US are counting on you thinking it’s so wild, that it can’t possibly be true. In my mind, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that US wants to continue to punish Russia vis Ukraine, and unknown what ‘24 election result will be. This could be an insurance policy to allow continue flow of arms should Congress or a new POTUS cut off direct arms shipments from USA to Ukraine. Arms to Ukraine if you haven’t noticed is getting pretty controversial in our government. Bibi has plenty of time to get populous back on his side for his ‘failure to detect’ w/ crushing military response, that’s about to kick off
I'm almost certainly naive on a few things, but I don't think this is happening because I feel like it doesn't quite fit Ockham's Razor (which is not disproof). I support more arms going to Russia, but I would not support any crazy round-about way of doing it on the level of the "Icebreaker" theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_offensive_plans_controversy
The fact that there are winners and losers is far from being evidence of a false flag operation. Even assuming that arms dealers prefer a world with more rather than less armed conflict doesn’t provide evidence of a false flag operation.
The only reason to conclude the possibility of a false flag conspiracy operation is based on the assumption of Israeli infallibility and Hamas inferiority . Moreover, one also has to assume that Israeli leadership would condone the mass murder of Jewish civilians in order to create a pretext for invading Gaza and going to war with Hamas.
First, I find support for abhorrent on its face. Second, as a practical matter Hamas’ constant missile attacks against Israel would already provide sufficient grounds to pacify Gaza. Third, as the success of this terrorist attack shows, the assumption that Israeli military and intelligence are superior to their enemies is debatable. Despite numerous successes, this is not the first time the Israeli military and intelligence apparatus has faltered. The difference this time is that Hamas is showing with the aide of Iran that it can be a formidable terrorist threat to the region. This will mean considerable rethinking of intelligence and military strategy not just by Israel, but Saudi Arabia as well. I would say this attack also changes the calculation for the USA in crafting our Middle East policy since Iran and Hamas have shown that they can and will use the most brutal form of terrorism to disrupt any semblance of stability in the region.
I don’t disagree. Just pointing out there are larger forces afoot that benefit from the emotional tugs that we’re seeing across media, as result of this tragedy. There are voices now across the political spectrum saying Hamas must be destroyed. Maybe so. As for false flag, if this did occur it’s a modification of traditional false flag. Traditional false flag is government designs and executed an attack on itself or ally. Some may say Gulf of Tonkin fits this bill, or better the Gleiwitz Incident in 1939 Poland/Germany (SS dressed up as Poles)
But in this case, could the ‘false flag’ have been Israel knowingly turning a blind eye to the prep and execution of terrorist attack, knowing those foes already hate their guts? My moral compass (and vast majority of others) would hope no, that can’t be the case. Perhaps that is what Israel/USA government are counting on…
Why would Israel turn blind eye to such an attack? The leaders of Hamas have expressed publicly that they took extraordinary efforts to keep this operation secret for two years during its planning. As the author indicates Israel does not have human assets in Gaza and has relied on electronic surveillance methods. Most intelligence professionals see human assets as the preferred method for collecting intelligence. So a more reasonable explanation is that Israeli intelligence agencies failed because they relied on electronic rather than human assets; and that Hamas was more skilled at keeping secrets than Israel believed they could be.
I dunno, but there are a number of former Israeli military & intelligence who are raising these questions. They were on the inside of IDF defense, not you or I, and they are skeptical of the failure to detect (and timely react). There is also report that Egypt tipped off Israel to the attack. If true, why was that dismissed/ignored? This attack also almost 50 year anniversary to ‘73 Yom Kippur War. I read MSM stating this failure is just attributed to Israeli hubris, they did not think it was possible that a ragtag group could pull off something so sophisticated. That is one explanation. But is it the true one?
First off to suggest that there is something suspicious about this attack because Hamas is a rag tag bunch is an interesting perspective. Hamas couldn’t pull this off because they are just a bunch of ignorant Arab bandits--seems to be embracing the same error that Israeli military and intelligence made. Besides while never having carried out an attack with this level of sophistication and ferocity, over the years, Hamas has shown they are a capable terrorist organization. But consider their capability maybe magnified exponentially by their current partnership with Iran--the financial and logistical supporter of much of the world’s current terrorism.
Finally, you and these others--even if they are former IDF--still have not provided a reason why Israeli leadership would sanction a pogrom against the Jewish people. It seems far fetched that Israel planned this false flag operation but were so clumsy as to lose control and allow the slaughter of Israeli citizens.
You would assume Hamas has a strategy that goes beyond kill a bunch of humans in barbaric fashion then run back into Gaza and get pummeled.
You might also assume Israel and western neocons have a strategy of ‘allowing’ bloodthirsty Hamas to perpetrate these atrocities. That opens up unlimited arms flows from USA to Israel to ‘fight back’ and guess what, those arms can be re-directed to Ukraine. It’s already been happening, and Israel stockpiles are low (especially artillery shells). Bibi can also offer a divided Israel (over judicial reforms) to focus attention instead on an old, common foe.
Big money goes around the world.
I can’t help but think that the pro Palestinian support in the US has a part in this tragedy. HAMAS feels somewhat safe in this tragedy because they know a strong voice will occur in the international community to stop Israel from destroying them.
Technology is a TOOL to help with defense but, more and more, it's being viewed as the be-all and end-all. It will never be a replacement for boots on the ground and simple observation. Technology can be taken out much more easily than people realize and A.I. is still in its infancy despite what those selling the tech would like us to believe.
When I was younger and we were buying our first house, I had thought about buying a burglar alarm. My dad told me a dog was a much better and, more importantly, faster deterrent. Relying on sensors on a fence is a great BACKUP but should never be the primary means of security.
“The zero hour was kept completely secret. . . . Hamas leaders knew it. The number of people who knew about the attack and its timing could be counted on one hand.”
Then how exactly do you organise a thousand men and a bulldozer at the last minute. Even if a thousand men were arranged, no of them ask questions about what they're going to do, where they are going? They set up protests prior to normalise movement on the border. But only a handful of men knew?
'Meanwhile, rocket fire from the sky pushed Israeli soldiers at their bases into protective spaces, meaning they were unable to stand outside and watch for invaders. And when Hamas used drones to drop bombs on Israel’s communications towers, the IDF lost its chain of command.'
The multiple physical and remote surveillance all gone? No one has mobile phones to communicate?
'an Egyptian intelligence official had warned Netanyahu of a looming Hamas attack, but those warnings were ignored'
Did they really? Has this been verified? According to the linked article “No message in advance has arrived from Egypt and the Prime Minister has neither spoken, nor met, with the head of Egyptian intelligence since the formation of the government, neither directly nor indirectly.”
This has so many holes. I'm waiting to see what Seymour Hersh's next release says.
it is weird that the US issued a level 4 travel advisory for Gaza on October 3rd.
That's interesting.
Have you read the article Seymour Hersh published 12 hours ago?
It's behind a paywall, and I honestly think the guy has expressed a little too much willingness to go to the poorly evidenced conspiracy, because for him, it completes the simplistic pattern--to be honest. I'm sorry I couldn't read the article to confirm or disconfirm that hypothesis.
Maybe you should consider reading his extensive library of articles, before making assumptions.
yeah, it's the prior work which is making me skeptical of the current!
In my (potentially naive) opinion, his political analysis is unmatched. And I've been looking for high quality journalism for a while.
And a few minutes ago, Seymour posted about it on Substack
Does anyone have a recommendation for a good book or two on either the history of Israel or the situation in Gaza?
The Ark of a Covenant but Walter Russel Mead. I haven’t finished but so far it’s illuminated for me much of the complexity.
I suggest you read Einat Wolf’s book, coauthored with Adi Shwartz, War of Return. It’s available at various bookstores. You can find a synopsis below.
https://www.wilf.org/English/
Short version relating to the modern world, as in the past half-Millenia or so:
1. The Ottoman Empire, with Turkey as its core state, had absolute sovereignty over all the land currently known as Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Palestine and Israel (and others too) for centuries.
2. The Ottoman Empire collapsed at the end of WWI (1918)
3. Then the land currently known as Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Palestine and Israel was administered by the UK and France under the now defunct League of Nations. The 1917 Balfour declaration from the UK expressed support for a Jewish homeland in the area of the former Ottoman Empire known as Palestine.
4. This area was at that time mostly Arab Muslims but with a Jewish minority. Obviously, both had been there since before the Ottoman Empire even existed. Zionism is the idea of a Jewish homeland and Jews from around the world started coming to the area to establish a Jewish state. Arabs wanted to have their own independent state. There was violence and terrorism and it was messy and the UK wanted out since they were caught in the middle and neither side wanted them there.
5. After WW2 ended (1945), the brand new UN mandated two new nations in this area, Israel and Palestine to take effect in 1948 (British official exit).
6. Palestine never got started since the first thing that happened was the first Arab-Israeli war where the Arab League (Palestine, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, etc) invaded Israel to wipe them out. They lost. There have been other Arab Israeli wars since, same result.
Not a book but I found this very helpful
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dEoVzKyD_IM
Bible has lots.
“Jerusalem” by Simon Montefiore is a great read, history of the city
I’m loving the solid, in-depth reporting on The FP. It seems so true that a house divided against itself cannot stand. Perhaps America should take notice.
I gotta say, is it Bibi's fault for reforming the judiciary for making it more deferential to the legislature (arguably a necessary idea to be true to democratic principles) or is it the fault of the opposition who made it very apparent that they'd rather defend the judiciary than defend the country. I think the opposition is more to blame than Bibi, but both sides share some of the blame here.
“We sacrifice ourselves”.
Nonsense! Hamas has sacrificed the future of their children. The aid, million of dollars, has not gone to quality of life for the many but to the corrupt few and to terrorist activities. The country is in shambles and Israel is not the major reason why it is such a mess.
Nonsense! Sounds really macho, but headquarters in hospital basements demonstrate a willingness to sacrifice the weak and spare yourselves. How much of a sacrifice and difficulty is it to kill babies? !
May people see Hamas for the monsters that they are and the destruction that they bring to others and their country.
The response from Ivy League schools has been shocking. I , naively, thought that they would see Hamas for who they are - a terror organization that’s goal is destruction of the Jews . The left has abandoned the Jews . I hope this is not the end of Israel . I pray they survive . I cannot imagine waking up to see men parachuting into my back yard . I cannot imagine living in fear every day. I hope they take the Gaza Strip back . Send all the refugees to the Arab world . No more
A few years back, I waited to see if a family member was safe after the terrorist attack on a rock concert in Paris. He was fine, but 130 young people died that night. There was a photo of the shoes and clothing left behind by the dead and wounded after they had been moved away. Their clothing was a testimony to an anticipated night of fun and celebration and how impossibly young they were.
What excuse is given for their deaths? How did it improve the lives of Palestine? What end was achieved by the means of killing people at soccer fields, concerts, magazines, or school? Je suits Charlie & Israel.
Note that the head bigwigs of Hamas, from the safety of their luxury homes in Qatar, are calling for "martyr" attacks on Jews this coming Friday: "we are asking for your blood and souls."
1 election put them in power, no elections since. They run a terror-police state on the level of Iran within their poor fiefdom, these people are being sacrificed. The people of Gaza are either terrorized into submission by their government, or they are blind fools weaned on tribal resentments that were nurtured by Hamas leadership in order to play them like pawns on a chessboard. What a disaster.
How many are being sacrificed against their will? Both the leaders of Hamas AND the common people of Gaza believe that getting killed as a result of jihad is quick trip to heaven. That's why they are so willing to put their children in harm's way.
you may be right, but I see the people of Gaza as being uneducated, unfree, manipulated, monitored, and have had their resentments carefully kindled for years and all the blame has been pushed on Israel - while the Hamas leaders of Gaza 1) don't even live there, and 2) cover-up the fact that they are the ones keeping Gaza poor by limiting opportunity and infrastructure>specifically to kindle resentment.
So go walk around in the roughest neighborhoods of the USA. South Side of Chicago, parts of New York, Atlanta, and apply your understanding of things there. Fix that first. Most people talk about Israel and Hamas as if they understood it. But right at home, with far simpler matters, they aren't willing to do that. Why? Because at home it's real. People here know better.
You're not wrong. But the fact that Gazans have been carefully groomed by their leaders to be the perfect suicidal pawns doesn't change the fact that they are extremely dangerous--and not just to Jews.
Jordan ended up kicking out their Palestinian refugees in the 70s when they attempt to assassinate the king of Jordan. Lebanon has a constant problem with civil strife as a result of allowing Palestinians to settle in their south. Kuwait kicked out Palestinian migrant workers because they supported Iraq during the 1990 invasion. Egypt doesn't want Palestinians in their country because they support the violent Muslim Brotherhood.
https://www.newsweek.com/unreported-foreign-donations-universities-foment-anti-semitism-opinion-1546139
This is why they yammer endlessly about Russia collusion, attempting misdirection on reality.
You saw Trudeau pull that out last week as he’s spent months trying distract us from actual Chinese interference
https://www.meforum.org/61807/foreign-funds-subvert-american-universities
Technology is great but what one man can do another can undo. The biggest issue is the cynicism of the west. Too many episodes of House of Cards and wag the dog movies makes us think all leaders and parties are simply mouthing rhetoric for domestic purposes. The charter for Hamas, a group Gaza's voted for, was the destruction of Israel. As Miss. Weiss has recently reminded us, WHEN SOMEONE TELLS YOU WHO YOU ARE BELIEVE THEM.
Their tactical victory might very well turn out to be a massive strategic mistake for Hamas—if a people are weak, divided, and complacent, and you attack without actually winning the war right then and there... All you've done is unified them and renewed their resolve like nothing else possibly could. Short-sighted at best, suicidal at worst.
So what is the long-term strategy? For Iran, it is a proxy war to bring their people together. Iran's leadership is loosing control. They need to focus their people's attention outward, away from themselves. Iran's ayatollahs WANT slaughter of civilians in Gaza. That becomes their PR warfare that they desperately need inside Iran. Within islam, to be a martyr is blessed. For that, you go to heaven no matter your sins.
The object here is not to win, although -- if they do slaughter Israel and drive the survivors into the sea to be picked up like Dunkirk --- they will celebrate it. But what they really want is to keep a proxy war simmering that makes their people turn away from them as this helps them keep their grip on power.
To deal with this, one must punish the puppet masters so they don't want to do it again.
We can hope it will unite
I vote for “suicidal”, but they need assistance