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I am 69 years old. The fact is the world is closer to nuclear conflagration than it has ever been in my lifetime. Far closer to nuclear conflagration in fact . For that we have Joe Biden , Kamala Harris and I will add Mike Johnson (because he agreed to billions of dollars for war in Ukraine) and the Uniparty to that list . Fact is when Donald Trump ended his presidency to world was pretty much at peace. There was no war in Ukraine and the Abraham Accords (which Joe Biden would not even mention for political reasons) was yes bringing peace closer to the Middle East.

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This new law does not mark the end to this "story of intrigue." Nor does translating a publicly available document that tracks with everything we already know. So while I disagree with the framing of this reporting as some sort of new exclusive, I do appreciate the light you bring to the topic, to include how destabilizing it will be for the world should Iran move forward with a nuclear weapon.

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Yes, thank you, Jay, for bringing this topic up again so all may see it. But, those who follow this topic closely always understood Iran is working towards nuclear weapons.

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Why wouldn't they? Duh. Let's pray that they don't already have or can be stopped.

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Promise *MAKERS* vs. Promise *K E E P E R S*

It's been 68 DAYS since "the debate"; school's in session & VERY serious "stuff" on both the global but/& the>> *NATIONAL*<< stage. Have *ANY* of your myriad of ABSOLUTELY awesome & TOTALLY exceptional ace Free Press writers figured out *WHO* is the United States President?????

PS TIP: It is *NOT* Trump, but he is *LEGALLY* running to be the *next* President of the United States.

Promise *MAKERS* vs. Promise *K E E P E R S*

https://faith1101.substack.com/publish/post/148514185

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What is wrong with you?

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As for the US intel community assessment regarding Iran’s nuclear weapon development. There is a public assessment and the real classified assessment. We are seeing the public assessment. Decisions are made off the classified assessment. Let’s hope our leadership doesn’t turn a blind eye as was done with North Korea. For sure the Israeli’s will not and one should assume a first use doctrine is in place if that’s what it takes to head off an Iranian nuke.

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> For more than two decades, avoiding that reality has motivated American foreign policy

Oh, nonsense. The whole point of the Obama/Biden rapprochement with Iran was to give them the elbow room to get the bomb, as a regional counterweight to the Sunnis in the rest of the Middle East.

A terribly stupid idea, but the only way to make sense of twelve years of abasement.

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It is possible that you are right. If so, what a bunch of idiots the Democrats are.

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Don't know why anyone would be focused on this right now when we have so much joy spreading across the nation. The joy is palpable. It's infectious. It's all the rage. It's here to help make us unburdened by what has been. Yeah baby!

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One day, just one day, I wish a journalist would actually write about "The bomb" with some knowledge of it.

What bomb, exactly, is Iran supposed to be so close to? A U235 gun type weapon like Little Boy that was dropped on Hiroshima? A Pu239 implosion device like "Fat Man" that was dropped on Nagasaki? A Teller Ulam, a layer cake weapon? These aren't minor distinctions. They are tremendously important.

For all practical purposes, the question is mooted at gun weapon vs implosion device, BUT, given that Dr Khan peddled so much nuclear weapon info, it's quite possible that North Korea sold Iran documents to allow the building of a fusion weapon. If so, that's a bigger problem by far.

But please, get someone to write who has knowledge.

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So, if Iran nukes Israel with a U235 gun weapon modeled after Little Boy, do you think the Israelis are going to say "well, Professor Teller would have scoffed at this primitive firecracker, so we don't have to retaliate?" I mean, sure, it's more dangerous if they have a two megaton thermonuclear warhead as opposed to a 5 kiloton 1945 era warhead. But Iranian nuclear weapons are still dangerous, regardless of the design. No?

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Well, a two megaton weapon would wipe out Tel Aviv and turn most of the area into a radioactive wasteland. A 5 kiloton weapon would do a tiny fraction of that damage. In either event, the reprisal would be brutal and swift.

However, the reason I want weapon discussion done is that it both educates the reader and informs them. I doubt Iran has megaton capability, for multiple reasons. An informed populace is one that makes better choices.

If my neighbor has a .22 long rifle pistol, that's one thing. If he has a full automatic .50 caliber machine gun, that is something very different.

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founding

So it’s pretty clear Iran is building an implosion bomb using uranium. It would be small enough to go on a ballistic missile. Both China and Pakistan have or had these weapons in their inventory. And of course Iran got much of its nuclear know how from Pakistan. Iran doesn’t have reprocessing capabilities and so can’t produce a plutonium weapon. It was building a small heavy water reactor at Arak so it seems a plutonium weapon was part of the plan. Iran was supposed to pour cement into the reactor vessel but it’s not clear if that happened.

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Sep 4·edited Sep 4

The other general fault of the article is the use of generic "bomb" versus "deployable weapon"

It's an order of magnitude (maybe 2 orders) easier to make a bomb that is laid out on a workbench that fits inside a shipping container. Deployable weapons must be:

- both shrunken, and

- hardened against shock/g forces

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Correct/ I've already accepted that Iran probably has a few assembled gun weapons and possibly a dirty Pu239 gun weapon (not good for maximum damage but great for long term radioactivity spread in radioisotopes.) However, at this point, the mullahs would be fools to bring any nuclear device into play, as Israel would turn every major city in Iran into a smoking pile of ashes.

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Sep 4·edited Sep 4

oh, and better make 10-20 because:

- you need a couple to demonstrate

- you better expect to lose some on Iranian soil to strikes

- you may have launch failures

- you will lose some to Israeli ABM

- some may not detonate

In calculating its retribution, do you think the IDF is going to factor in your failures and give you a walk just because you didn't get a high order detonation over Haifa?

News for you: if their sensors get a whiff of Plutonium or Uranium in one of your duds, there will be glassy craters all over Iran.

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founding

Let us count the number of appeasing tactics of the Obama/Biden presidencies-Crimea, Greater Ukraine, the unfreezing and therefore funding by Biden of monies used to fund the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah. Shipping costs rising and an oil tanker hit in international shipping lanes. Where’s the response by the world? Where’s the world leadership? Total weakness.

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You forgot that Biden, in all his wisdom, removed the terrorist designation to the murderous Houthi’s. After all, they are just mostly peaceful, just like the rioters.

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founding

Well thanks for the reminder that one tops it all this is how moronic this has been!

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Sep 4·edited Sep 4

A critical outcome of Iran’s “breakout” becoming proximate has been the steady narrowing of options available to the West to do anything about it. At this point, if the West wants to eliminate the threat of a nuclear Iran, it must rely on Israel to step up it’s espionage. The US can and will certainly collaborate with Israel on these missions, but the tip of the spear will be Israel. A pre-emptive military assault on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure by the US + Western coalition is unlikely.

The other option remains regime change, but that option would seem to require some exigent circumstances, some “spark”, that the West is not well positioned to provide. The PRG has been highly effective over the last few years crushing the “counter-revolution”.

It strikes me as more than coincidence that Iran is exercising unusual constraint in the face of Israel’s highly effective assassinations of late just as they are approaching “breakout”.

A full-scale war must be avoided by Iran, even at significant costs in near-term prestige, since a war would certainly trigger a variety of un-predictable outcomes, including changes on the ground in Iran that could trigger the “spark” that is needed for regime change.

The “spark”, mentioned above, does yet smolder. It has not been that long since these same Mullah’s needlessly expended a million or so of Persia’s youth as cannon fodder in the war between Iran and Iraq. Memories are long in that part of the world.

Indeed, Iran has lost face with its proxies (to mix a cultural metaphor) by its tepid response to Israel’s clandestine operations of the last several weeks, but that may be a minor price to pay to avoid a war with the West than can only end one way but with enormous loss of lives on all sides.

Every action (and reaction) that takes place now in the region must be considered in the context of just how close the Mullah’s are to their decades-long goal of having nuclear weapons. Do not be surprised if we begin to hear softer tones from Iran’s leadership at this particular time. It is likely to indicate they are very, very close to achieving their nuclear ambitions.

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founding

Are we not naive to assume they do not already have the bomb?

The technology is so old and they have so much money.

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If they did, wouldn't they either announce it or use it? I mean, what's the point of a secret super weapon?

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Iran would be much further, not closer, to bombs if Trump had not, with the whole-hearted support of Bibi and AIPAC, insanely torn up Obama’s treaty.

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Sep 4·edited Sep 4

Fred are you on Iran's payroll? The Iranians never ever accepted the deep dives into their infrastructure to monitor what was actually going on behind closed doors. Since I have a better memory than you, the treaty required 30 days notice before inspections and the Iranians still cheated.

Obama's treaty was total crap.

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That’s not what the international inspectors said.

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Don't they have an incentive to claim they were effective?

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Are you on Bibi and Trump’s payroll?

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Absolute nonsense. Obama and Kerry got played like a fiddle by the Mullahs. They got billions of dollars, saw sanctions lifted and used those resources to build their network of terrorist proxies throughout the Middle East.

Obama’s ego and desire for a “legacy” treaty with Iran has led to pain, suffering and death. Nothing positive came out of the JCPOA.

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founding

It seems odd to me that we have reached a point where the west can publicly perform these sorts of actions and operations and report about them without caring for what their impact might be. As if the “participants” are a nation of monkeys who just discovered fire and lack the ability to communicate across long distance.

“Starting in 2014, the U.S. has sanctioned a spiderweb of SPND officials, subsidiaries, and front companies in a bid to drain the organization’s supply lines and resources. Israel was so alarmed by SPND’s activities that its agents assassinated the organization’s former chief, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, on the outskirts of Tehran in November 2020. Assassins, also believed to be backed by Israel, killed five other Iranian scientists between 2007 and 2012, and attempted to take out a sixth.”

If I’m an Iranian and I read that passage, it doesn’t fill me with any sort of comfort. It doesn’t give me confidence that the people I’m supposed to be negotiating with are honest. It serves to reinforce what I have been told to believe about the west and the enemies of Iran. If you need perspective just change Iran in that paragraph to Israel and Israel to Iran. Or whatever your country of choice might be. I’d say America but we let our enemies shoot our citizens in the back of the head and then walk around with wired headphones in our heads pretending we are too busy to answer any questions.

The reason we - the west - are in the mess that we are in is because of the greed of our political class. Our enemies didn’t just sit back and do nothing while they witnessed the corruption take place. They brought the bellows out and fed the corruption enough oxygen to light the world on fire. Now we have a world where a reporter believes an Iranian regime will take a female head of state seriously - let alone a female head of state that they know was simply installed as a front for the 5 headed hydra running the west that wants to operate “business as usual” to keep them and their friends in myriad NGOs rich. Iran does not care about keeping our corrupt government rich. They don’t care about money. Not like you think they do.

Iran took Trump seriously because they knew he operated outside the lines of understood tit for tat western diplomacy. He wouldn’t carve out just enough to make it hurt and then stop like all past administrations. He would carve and carve and carve until the only thing left was pain with no possibility of response and, more importantly, progress.

You think Iran wants to develop a nuke to come to the table to negotiate with the west. That’s funny. How’s North Korea doing these days? You think Iran wants a nuke so they can use it against Israel? So they can kill 8 million innocent people and poison the entire Middle East for the next 10,000 years? Nobody wants to use a nuke. It doesn’t matter how crazy you think they are, that’s not the point of having a nuke. It’s a deterrent. It’s a quill on a porcupine that you dare never touch.

Iran wants a nuke so it can finally put an end to the final discussion of Islam. They believe they will create the hand of God and they will end the schism between Shia and Sunni (by force). Which will give Iran effective control over a billion Muslims. They want Saudi Arabia to fall to its knees. Having a nuke means they can make the military advancements they want to make without fear of the type of reprisal on Tehran that would result in mass casualties. And they’re right. And it’s a checkmate on the west because we are stupid and believe the world revolves around us.

Educate yourselves:

https://www.cfr.org/article/sunni-shia-divide

If you think I’m wrong and you think we’re winning the “war” against our enemies check global religious populations. Maybe check in on Europe and see how they’re faring. Then ask yourself how your religion is doing. Likely you don’t have one. If you do have one I bet you it doesn’t offer you rewards for conquest of infidels. It probably tells you something like “thou shalt not kill.” So western religions by my estimation are the Boy Scouts or in the case of America today, the LGBTQ crybaby victim brigade, versus the religious equivalent of Delta Force.

Who, by the way, have brainwashed our youth into dying their hair red and green, wearing keffiyehs and chanting death to America. In America.

Yesterday I sat on my balcony and listened to my (very white, WASPy) next door neighbors discussing AOC as the future of the Democrat party and how awesome she is. All while sipping on a glass of their $300 a bottle white wine, sitting on their 4 million dollar house’s front porch. This is how retarded we are as a nation.

But you’re worried about Iran making nukes…

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One of the most foolish things done in the last 20 years was the turning of American policy towards the Mullah regime by Obama (and thus all Democrats). The only answer is to support regime change which was American policy for decades. It doesn't mean invading. But this decision to elevate Iran to a legitimate power is insane.

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Hawks in Japan led to Hiroshima. Doves in Britain gave Hitler a green light. Both assured misery for the rest of us. This poker game requires finesse if it's to end well. Harris or Trump? American voters (living or dead?!) will decide. Perhaps better than leaving it to the "experts" - karmakaze!

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Anyone who believes that Iran’s new president wishes to halt development of nuclear weapons is dangerously naive. He may be interested in resuming negotiations with the US but, as with previous deals, he likely views that as both providing funds and cover for their nuclear weapons programs.

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The new President was Allowed to run as a crumb for all the young opposition. He is beholden to Khamenei.

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"Documents translated by The Free Press reveal the Islamic Republic could be closer to that day than many experts understand."

Documents translated by The Free Press reveal the Islamic Republic could be closer to that day than many experts are willing to admit. FIFY

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