A critical outcome of Iran’s “breakout” becoming proximate has been the steady narrowing of options available to the West to do anything about it. At this point, if the West wants to eliminate the threat of a nuclear Iran, it must rely on Israel to step up it’s espionage. The US can and will certainly collaborate with Israel on these mis…
A critical outcome of Iran’s “breakout” becoming proximate has been the steady narrowing of options available to the West to do anything about it. At this point, if the West wants to eliminate the threat of a nuclear Iran, it must rely on Israel to step up it’s espionage. The US can and will certainly collaborate with Israel on these missions, but the tip of the spear will be Israel. A pre-emptive military assault on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure by the US + Western coalition is unlikely.
The other option remains regime change, but that option would seem to require some exigent circumstances, some “spark”, that the West is not well positioned to provide. The PRG has been highly effective over the last few years crushing the “counter-revolution”.
It strikes me as more than coincidence that Iran is exercising unusual constraint in the face of Israel’s highly effective assassinations of late just as they are approaching “breakout”.
A full-scale war must be avoided by Iran, even at significant costs in near-term prestige, since a war would certainly trigger a variety of un-predictable outcomes, including changes on the ground in Iran that could trigger the “spark” that is needed for regime change.
The “spark”, mentioned above, does yet smolder. It has not been that long since these same Mullah’s needlessly expended a million or so of Persia’s youth as cannon fodder in the war between Iran and Iraq. Memories are long in that part of the world.
Indeed, Iran has lost face with its proxies (to mix a cultural metaphor) by its tepid response to Israel’s clandestine operations of the last several weeks, but that may be a minor price to pay to avoid a war with the West than can only end one way but with enormous loss of lives on all sides.
Every action (and reaction) that takes place now in the region must be considered in the context of just how close the Mullah’s are to their decades-long goal of having nuclear weapons. Do not be surprised if we begin to hear softer tones from Iran’s leadership at this particular time. It is likely to indicate they are very, very close to achieving their nuclear ambitions.
A critical outcome of Iran’s “breakout” becoming proximate has been the steady narrowing of options available to the West to do anything about it. At this point, if the West wants to eliminate the threat of a nuclear Iran, it must rely on Israel to step up it’s espionage. The US can and will certainly collaborate with Israel on these missions, but the tip of the spear will be Israel. A pre-emptive military assault on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure by the US + Western coalition is unlikely.
The other option remains regime change, but that option would seem to require some exigent circumstances, some “spark”, that the West is not well positioned to provide. The PRG has been highly effective over the last few years crushing the “counter-revolution”.
It strikes me as more than coincidence that Iran is exercising unusual constraint in the face of Israel’s highly effective assassinations of late just as they are approaching “breakout”.
A full-scale war must be avoided by Iran, even at significant costs in near-term prestige, since a war would certainly trigger a variety of un-predictable outcomes, including changes on the ground in Iran that could trigger the “spark” that is needed for regime change.
The “spark”, mentioned above, does yet smolder. It has not been that long since these same Mullah’s needlessly expended a million or so of Persia’s youth as cannon fodder in the war between Iran and Iraq. Memories are long in that part of the world.
Indeed, Iran has lost face with its proxies (to mix a cultural metaphor) by its tepid response to Israel’s clandestine operations of the last several weeks, but that may be a minor price to pay to avoid a war with the West than can only end one way but with enormous loss of lives on all sides.
Every action (and reaction) that takes place now in the region must be considered in the context of just how close the Mullah’s are to their decades-long goal of having nuclear weapons. Do not be surprised if we begin to hear softer tones from Iran’s leadership at this particular time. It is likely to indicate they are very, very close to achieving their nuclear ambitions.