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Spartacus's avatar

Sigh. Really, River?

A $40 hat generating $1 million in profits in 30 minutes. Let's assume they got the hats made for $2.60 on Ali Baba. (I looked it up. There are also swag companies that make such stuff. American made as claimed by the hat page costs more, but it's printed, not embroidered, so it should be similar in price. The higher the price, the more hats to sell. Those so inclined can figure the math out for themselves.)

Price Cost gross profit Total profit Hats sold Hats per min

$40.00 $2.60 $37.40 $1,000,000 26,738 891

But 891 hats per minute is just the average. When something goes viral, it has an exponential growth curve. So if we put that exponential growth curve in, how many hats are sold in the 30th minute?

To figure that, we'll use a minute by minute summation from 1-30 minutes.

26,738 = sum(e^(a*i), i = 1 .. 30) ; solve for a. And a = 0.294237

So, the number of hats sold in the 30th minute is: e^(0.294237*30) ≈ 6,817.

It's plausible, perhaps. About 50,000 people are expected at the convention.

However, it smells like "priming". Priming is what is done to get a kickstarter campaign noticed and promoted. Priming is when the people that start a campaign buy, or arrange for someone to contribute to the campaign. This sort of thing used to happen to kick off record sales.

Priming also happens from time to time in book promotions on Amazon.

Do politicians prime? Sure they do.

But there's more. Take a look at the web page that offers the hats.

https://store.kamalaharris.com/harris-walz-printed-camo-hat/

Now take a look at other sites that are offering the hats for less.

https://www.etsy.com/listing/1761053626/harris-walz-embroidered-campaign-hat

https://www.amazon.com/s?k=walz+caps&hvadid=583773525285

Back to the official Kamalaharris.com page above.

This page says both "Sold Out" and, it says "Expected release date is Sep 30th 2024".

That strongly suggests that ... there are no hats from the Harris-Walz campaign. At least not yet. Maybe hats are being made, slowly, in America, as advertised, while the embroidered, mo' bettah hats from China and the PacRim, are actually being bought by those eager to have a hat to wear.

Will there ever be hats delivered from the Kamala Harris for president page? You will have to look forensically at the campaign finance disclosures for that information. But you won't be able to see that until maybe this time next year.

One thing you can be sure of, if you see any Harris-Walz hats, those hats are not from her campaign.

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