This week marked a dramatic escalation in Syria’s 13-year civil war. Rebel factions launched their most audacious offensive in years, capturing Aleppo, the focal point of the war for over a decade. This marked the most serious challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s government and its Russian- and Iranian-backed allies in nearly a decade.
Syrian and Russian forces are currently unleashing joint air strikes in a desperate attempt to reclaim the city. Iran has thrown its weight behind al-Assad, promising increased support to shore up his faltering grip on power.
But Syria is just one piece of a much larger—and far more dangerous—puzzle.
The Middle East is on a knife’s edge. Just last week, Israel and Hezbollah reached a fragile ceasefire along the Lebanon border, but tensions remain high. In Gaza, Israel has continued its operations against Hamas, who still hold 63 hostages. And then there’s Iran—the architect of much of the region’s instability—whose escalating provocations make it seem like a direct war with Israel is no longer a question of if, but when.
These conflicts are deeply interconnected, and the fall of one domino could set off far-reaching consequences. The potential power vacuum left by a weakened al-Assad regime could reshape alliances and alter the balance of power in ways that reverberate from Tehran to Tel Aviv, and from Moscow to Washington.
To help us make sense of these rapidly unfolding events and their implications for the region, Michael Moynihan is joined today by Haviv Rettig Gur, a senior analyst at The Times of Israel and one of the sharpest minds on Middle East politics.
In this conversation, they unpack what’s going on in Syria, the root causes of tribal war and dysfunction across the Arab world, the ceasefire in Lebanon, what comes next in Gaza, the weakening of Iran, and what all of this means for Israel and the United States.
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Please consider providing transcripts for all Honestly interviews. I know a lot of folks prefer to listen while doing other things, but I can't be the only subscriber who prefers reading as it allows me to consume more information.
I listen to Haviv Rettig Gur on Call Me Back with Dan Senor regularly. This discussion was a bit different. One negative, one positive.
On the negative side, it's clear (with some justification) that he doesn't care for Netanyahu. Multiple times, Haviv mentioned that Netanyahu didn't have a Gaza strategy. I recall (and frequently refer back to) a Wall Street Journal editorial that Netanyahu published on Dec 25, 2023. It's very clear: destroy Hamas, demilitarize Gaza, and deradicalize its people. Once that is done, then Gaza will be safe enough to rebuild. What isn't mentioned in the article, but obviously just as important, is the freeing of the hostages. And, obviously, no one is saying that this will be easy.
On the positive side, his definition of anti-Zionism is a master class in moral clarity. It's even better with him showing an emotional side that doesn't often come out on Call Me Back.
Highly recommend listening to this one.