Based on the national polls, if the election were today then Trump would probably win 320 EC votes.
Right now, Harris is +2.0.
Hillary was up by 3.2 and won the popular vote by 2.1
Biden was up by 7.2 and won the popular vote by 4.5, but he won the Presidency by a mere 50,000 votes split among three states.
Due to their structural weakness, a Democrat needs to win the popular vote by more than 3 to win the EC. I'm sure pollsters have adjusted their models to try to fix the nearly 3 point gap they saw in 2020, but they did that when they tried to fix the 1 point gap in 2016.
What's amazing is that Harris is polling better than Biden, even though she had a lower approval rating before becoming the candidate.
Based on the national polls, if the election were today then Trump would probably win 320 EC votes.
Right now, Harris is +2.0.
Hillary was up by 3.2 and won the popular vote by 2.1
Biden was up by 7.2 and won the popular vote by 4.5, but he won the Presidency by a mere 50,000 votes split among three states.
Due to their structural weakness, a Democrat needs to win the popular vote by more than 3 to win the EC. I'm sure pollsters have adjusted their models to try to fix the nearly 3 point gap they saw in 2020, but they did that when they tried to fix the 1 point gap in 2016.
What's amazing is that Harris is polling better than Biden, even though she had a lower approval rating before becoming the candidate.