When Hamas attacked Israel eight months ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel’s war goals were threefold: one, destroy Hamas; two, free all of the hostages; and three, ensure that Gaza can never threaten Israel again.
More than 250 days later, some 120 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, both dead and alive. Two Hamas battalions remain, consisting of somewhere between 9,000 and 12,000 fighters. More than 300 Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza and thousands wounded, 135,000 Israeli civilians are still displaced, and the war seems to have no end in sight.
Why? Israel is supposed to be the greatest military force in the Middle East. So why haven’t they achieved their war goals? Are their war goals even viable? And, can Israel win this war?
Here to help answer these questions today are Seth Frantzman and John Spencer.
Seth Frantzman is the senior Middle East correspondent and analyst at The Jerusalem Post. He has reported on the war against ISIS, several Gaza wars, and the conflict in Ukraine. And, he is an Adjunct Fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He thinks Israel can and should win this war, but he thinks the past eight months have been dismal and that Israel is at risk of losing and losing disastrously.
John Spencer is a military expert who has served in the army for 25 years, including two combat tours in Iraq. He is now chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point and host of the Urban Warfare Project podcast. He was recently asked if the war was winnable for the IDF, and he said: one hundred percent. But he thinks it is contingent on a total defeat of Hamas.
Today, we discuss what has actually been accomplished by the IDF in the last eight months, why they haven’t achieved “total victory” yet and if that’s even possible, the fate of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, how the U.S. has restrained Israel and if that restraint has been good or bad for Israel, what hope there is for the remaining hostages, whether the idea of Hamas can be defeated, what a “day after” plan could look like, the war with Hezbollah heating up in the north, and, most importantly: why October 7 did not wake up the West.
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What we as a country have not learned from Vietnam (whether we belonged there or not) is that politicians should never tell the military how to wage war. The limits we have put on Israel has only prolonged the war. We are doing the same with the Ukranians. Whether you agree about giving military aid to Ukraine is not the argument. If you do give them or Israel military aid then do not hamper them, do not limit how they wage war if you indeed want them to win. Ukraine cannot win without having air superiority and sending ground based missiles past the eastern border to destroy Russian air bases. The Biden administration has warned them not to do that.
Israel can only win if they kill or capture every Hamas fighter, an obviously difficult task when fighters hide among a collaborative population. Our continued wishy washy support only makes us look weak and divided especially when our enemies see the Hamas wing of the democrats and their useful idiots on campuses nationwide. What a mess.
This was a very interesting podcast on the tactical aspects of victory over Hamas or Hizbollah, but you never really pursued the key to strategic victory, defeating Iran. Iran is the source of all these problems, funding (often with money given to them by the US) Hamas, Hizbollah and the Houthis. The US and the world community has enabled this by allowing the UN to fund pay-to-slay and children's books that inculcate the fervent belief that killing Jews is not only right, but a duty. Iran is the head of the snake. Hamas must be destroyed, but that is not enough. And not because Hamas is an idea, but because Iran is the source of that idea and funding to advance it around the world.
Iran has a population that is anti-theocratic but is dominated by the security apparatus of the theocracy. The opposition must be supported and encouraged to overthrow the Mullahs. Until then, Iran must be deprived of the resources to extend their vile reach. That, in fact, is the same strategy to enable the anti-theocrats to gain support. We need to start thinking strategically and get above the tactical fight which Israel has well in hand.