Peter Turchin is not like most historians.
For starters, he has an unusual background as an evolutionary biologist studying lemmings and mice. He says that analyzing the complexities of the natural world has allowed him to understand the most complex system of all: human society. He has pioneered a field of history that he calls cliodynamics that applies hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of historical data points to a mathematical model in order to understand the present and to predict future trends.
Using these tools, Peter and his team published an article in the journal Nature in 2010 making a bold prediction. They said that economic, social, and political instability in the United States would hit a “peak” in or around the year 2020. Many of Turchin’s critics said he was crazy to make such a speculation, that it’s too hard to predict how history will progress, that the study of history is more art than science. But then came 2020.
It turned out to be a massively turbulent year, one that would bring outbreaks of political violence that the U.S. hadn’t experienced in decades. It felt like complete chaos, between Covid lockdowns, mask and vaccine protests, BLM riots, and then, only six days into 2021, the storming of the Capitol in Washington, D.C.
What did Peter see that everyone else missed?
Peter is the author of over 200 articles and eight books, and his fascinating new one is called End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration. It argues that societies operate cyclically, going through golden ages and end times. And he says that we’re currently looking at the telltale signs of an imminent revolution.
On today’s show, Peter talks to us about how he studies history, what American history can tell us about our current moment, why 2024 is going to be a year to watch, and what individuals can do to change the direction of history.
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Dear Bari, I just need to pull you up on your views around meritocracy. There has been a lot written in that space and if you need me to share that I can
This was one of the more intriguing Honestly podcasts to listen to. On the one hand, Bari pushed Turchin hard to clarify his positions. On the other hand, some of those positions were a bit confusing (everyone's a revolutionary unless they are a (certain kind of) elite)!
Am I the only one that was hearing Hari Seldon in Isaac Asimov's Foundation series during this discussion? Pyschohistory essentially equals cliodynamics, at least at a surface level. As another science fiction hero might say: fascinating! :)
Whenever I see theories that are clearly backed by data, they are at least worth listening to. It feels like Turchin's Russian background is naturally driving much of his thinking - it feels like if he chose to take sides, he would be a proper socialist. So, that's sort of a problem but that doesn't invalidate the process, just the conclusions.
Anyway, if elites have all of the money and political power, one way to fix the politics is to somehow get the money out of politics. If you can't buy your president (looking at you, Zuck) or your prosecutors (Soros), then you'll have to rely on old-fashioned merit and hard work to convince people that you can lead them in a direction that is more prosperous for most if not all people.